Ukraine peace plan and new round of negotiations

(NB&CL) In the context of continuous deadlock in negotiation efforts, the appearance of the US's 28-point peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict marks a change in strategic calculations of the parties involved.

The sudden emergence of the 28-point plan

The signs of a new initiative by Washington to resolve the Ukraine crisis appear in the context of a cautious mood among observers. The rounds of contacts over the past two years, from Istanbul-2 to Alaska, have created expectations and then quickly fell into deadlock, causing public opinion to form an inherent skepticism towards any diplomatic movement, positive or negative.

US President Donald Trump welcomes his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House. Photo: White House

However, the emergence of the 28-point peace plan proposed by President Donald Trump - considered the most detailed by US diplomats - has created a new milestone. This plan reaffirms the principles that appeared in the Istanbul 2022 negotiations but is more in line with "realities on the ground".

Under it, Ukraine would have to accept limits on its military capabilities, a neutral status enshrined in the Constitution, and de facto surrender some territories, including Donbas. In return, Kiev would receive peace and a mechanism to support economic recovery, although the details remain to be worked out. In addition to the goal of ending hostilities, the plan also incorporates the idea of ​​maintaining stability in the European security architecture.

The extent to which the plan is aligned with recent US policy suggests that Washington may have identified a minimal compromise structure with Moscow. In fact, many points in the plan are relatively consistent with the position that Russia outlined three years ago, except for the issue of some areas in Zaporizhia and Kherson not being fully controlled by Russia.

The fact that the Russian president publicly confirmed the authenticity of the plan and expressed his readiness to discuss it shows that previous Russian-American contacts were not merely exploratory, but have entered the framework of substantive negotiations. However, this cannot be equated with the prospect of imminent peace, because the opposition from Kiev and European countries continues to be a major obstacle.

On the other hand, several European countries have announced that they will put forward counter-proposals and bring the issue to the G20, which is not designed as a security mechanism. This reflects the divergent interests of the West, as well as the efforts of some countries to add provisions that Moscow finds difficult to accept, thereby prolonging or nullifying the negotiation process.

Washington's calculations

In addition, whether the 28-point peace plan reflects the stance of the entire Trump administration or just a part of it remains an unanswered question.

The consistency of US policy is being challenged both from within the administration and from allies, so even if the plan continues, a degree of “unpredictability” in Washington’s policy is likely to remain.

This was partly reflected in new developments when Mr. Trump's peace plan was quickly narrowed down to 19 points, with more details favorable to Ukraine, after emergency meetings between the US, Russia and the European Union in Geneva last weekend. In addition, President Zelenskyy will also prepare to go to the US to further negotiate this agreement.

This raises the view that the Trump administration initially proposed a 28-point plan that was too favorable to Russia mainly to put pressure on Ukraine and the European Union (EU), forcing them to continue to sit at the negotiating table and the US will continue to have the right to impose important policies related to this war, such as Mr. Trump's success in forcing NATO countries to increase their defense budget to 5% of GDP, as well as forcing the EU to pay for US arms aid packages for Ukraine. The strategy of threatening and pressuring to achieve benefits has been applied by Mr. Trump many times with all parties since returning to power earlier this year.

Obviously, the peace process for Ukraine is not just a matter of sitting at the negotiating table, but a tug of war between the situation on the battlefield, the calculations of the major powers, as well as Ukraine’s ability to adapt. Therefore, it is not impossible that the Ukraine plan that the US has just proposed is at risk of becoming another symbolic peace initiative that is difficult to implement in reality.

Source: https://congluan.vn/ke-hoach-hoa-binh-ukraine-va-vong-xoay-dam-phan-moi-10319552.html