Scenario for the stock market after a panicky fall

VN-Index surpassed the historical threshold of 1,700 points in the last session of the week, but quickly reversed and plummeted at 15 minutes ATC. Will the stock market continue to fluctuate or regain momentum in the new trading week?

The stock market is still assessed positively in the medium and long term, especially if upgraded - Photo: QUANG DINH

Two scenarios for the stock market

* Mr. Dong Thanh Tuan - expert of Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities:

- FTSE Russell's review of the chances of upgrading the stock market to emerging market status and the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates are of interest this September.

But in reality, both of the above stories are not new, while any change in information will be a sign for investors to take profits, in order to preserve the achievements accumulated in recent months.

We are also not too optimistic about the Fed's decision to lower interest rates at the present time, as the impact of the trade war on a large scale will continue to impact inflation in the coming time - this will continue to limit the Fed's room to lower interest rates in 2026, and exchange rate pressure on Vietnam will still exist.

Regarding the trading outlook for September and the rest of 2025, we remain optimistic in the medium and long term that the VN-Index still has room to increase towards a new historical peak at 1,800 - 2,000 points, if the upward momentum is maintained as at present and exchange rate pressure will remain within the threshold allowed by the State Bank.

Therefore, we propose two scenarios for the trading performance of the VN-Index in the remaining months of 2025.

Baseline scenario: VN-Index is expected to establish a short-term support zone at 1,650 points, and continue to increase to 1,800 points.

Less optimistic scenario: Forming a medium-term support zone at 1,550 points.

Are banking and securities stocks still "hot"?

* Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa - Director of Analysis , Agribank Securities (Agriseco):

- In my opinion, the banking group still has room to increase prices, but will tend to be more selective. In the first 7 months of 2025, system-wide credit increased by 9.64% compared to the end of 2024, while in the same period last year it only increased by about 6%.

In the last months of 2025, besides the wave of promoting public investment disbursement by the Government , this is also the peak period of consumption, production and business activities, expected to contribute to promoting credit demand for the whole system.

Besides, asset quality will also gradually improve as the real estate market is showing clear signs of recovery.

The move to remove the "credit room" mechanism is also expected to have a positive impact on the business results of the banking sector when banks can rely on their internal financial health and actual market demand to boost credit, helping to maximize interest income and improve overall business efficiency.

However, the group's price increase trend will be more clearly differentiated, because the general valuation level of the banking group is no longer low.

Banks that are leading in terms of capital base and have built a solid customer ecosystem as well as effective risk management capabilities are expected to continue to be the destination of cash flow in the last months of 2025.

In addition, in the last months of the year, with the above growth drivers and the individual investment stories of each stock, such as IPO stories, capital increases, cryptocurrency market development stories, etc., I believe that stocks still have a lot of room for price increases in the coming time.

Short-term investor strategy

* Ms. Nguyen Phuong Nga - analyst at Vietcombank Securities (VCBS):

- VN-Index successfully conquered the 1,700 mark last weekend. However, the rapid increase in supply caused the index to lose steam and slide below the 1,670 mark.

The dominant red color and widespread correction show short-term profit-taking pressure, but at the same time will also make cash flow tend to be more cautious in the coming sessions.

Accordingly, we recommend that investors closely follow market developments, and only disburse when there is a signal confirming the new market equilibrium point.

Along with that, investors also need to proactively reduce margin ratio and maintain purchasing power to both manage risks and take advantage of market adjustments to find disbursement opportunities for short-term surfing purposes.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/kich-ban-cho-thi-truong-chung-khoan-sau-phien-roi-sau-day-hoang-mang-20250907215645797.htm