Champions League semi-final fixtures: 30% chance for Arsenal

According to Opta's calculator, Arsenal have a 30% chance of winning at PSG's Parc des Princes. That's twice the chance of missing a penalty in football. Does that mean Arsenal still have hope?

The challenge is harsh, but full of glory

For now, it must be said that Arsenal's task in the second leg of the Champions League semi-final tomorrow morning (8/5) is too difficult. They lost 0-1, now they have to visit PSG with the task of winning back. But if they overcome this cruel challenge, coach Mikel Arteta will do what Arsenal has only done once before, in its entire history: reach the Champions League final.

The only previous time Arsenal reached the Champions League final was in 2006 - exactly 10 years after Arsene Wenger took over as head coach. This is only Arteta's fifth full season in charge of Arsenal. It is likely to be the third consecutive season that Arsenal finish as runners-up in the Premier League. And if that comes with the honour of playing in the Champions League final, that would be a huge achievement (let alone winning the final). The more difficult the challenge, the more inviting and promising glory for Arteta and his team.

From PSG's perspective, does a 1-0 away win in the first leg guarantee progression? The answer is obvious: they were in Arsenal's shoes, and overcame the challenge in the second leg away from home in the knockout stages of this season's Champions League. At that time, PSG's "victim" was Liverpool, who were considered the number 1 candidate for the championship. On the other hand, Arsenal are also very familiar with the feeling of winning away from home in this season's Champions League. They have won all four of their most recent away games, scoring 16 goals (against Sporting Lisbon, Girona, PSV Eindhoven, Real Madrid respectively).

In short, nothing is impossible, although it must be admitted: Arteta and his team are being placed in the "underdog" position before the big match at PSG.

Arsenal must work hard to win

PHOTO: AFP

Arsenal rely on Declan Rice

The key difference for Arsenal compared to the first leg is the return of holding midfielder Thomas Partey. Partey was suspended last week. The problem is not just that Arsenal have lost a solid shield in front of the defence. Without Partey, Declan Rice has had to play more defensively than offensively, which has deprived Arsenal of the usual power in Rice's attacks. Rice will now be more attacking, confident of Partey's solidity in midfield.

In contrast, PSG’s only scorer in the first leg, Ousmane Dembele, only returned to training two days ago. It remains to be seen whether Dembele will be fit enough to play, or in what form he will be. Dembele has been PSG’s best player this season, and one of the three best players in Europe (along with Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and Barcelona’s Raphinha).

As long as Dembele is present, coach Luis Enrique will have the strongest squad. Arsenal's injury list is quite long: Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Jorginho, Gabriel Magalhaes, Riccardo Calafiori, Takehiro. Anyway, these are familiar absences in recent times. As mentioned, Partey's return is the most important detail. And if Bukayo Saka and Mikel Merino can play their best form in attack, this is still a very strong Arsenal.

Arteta came from Barcelona's La Masia youth academy, but he couldn't compete for a place in a midfield filled with Andres Iniesta, Xavi, Pep Guardiola, Luis Enrique, Ivan de la Pena, Emmanuel Petit, Philip Cocu... So, PSG was Arteta's first club in his football career. He moved to PSG on loan, at the age of 18. Now, Arteta will return to the Parc des Princes as an opponent, in a match that is sure to be emotional and too important.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/lich-thi-dau-ban-ket-champions-league-30-co-hoi-cho-arsenal-18525050711425447.htm