Strong buying power pulls MXV-Index back to 2,200 point zone

The industrial raw material group attracted attention when it led the increase of the whole market, in which, at the end of the trading session on the weekend, the price of Arabica coffee reached 9,000 USD/ton - the highest level since early March. In contrast, oil prices turned to weaken amid concerns about future oversupply.

At the end of the trading week, green covered most of the industrial raw material market. In particular, many items increased sharply in price. In the coffee market, the two items Arabica and Robusta had an impressive week of increase. At the end of the session, the price of Arabica coffee increased by 7.31% to 8,815 USD/ton; meanwhile, the price of Robusta coffee increased by 2.62% to 5,415 USD/ton. During the trading session on Friday (April 25), the prices of the two coffee items fluctuated strongly, with Arabica ending up climbing to its highest level in 7 weeks.

According to MXV, concerns about tariff measures continued to dominate coffee prices last week. The National Coffee Association (NCA) has proactively petitioned the US government to exempt imported coffee from tariffs, in order to protect the coffee industry from the risk of new tariffs. According to Reuters, the NCA's application for tariff exemption has received a positive response from the US government, however, the final result and the time of the decision have not been clearly determined.

Regarding the supply situation, according to the latest report from Hedgepoint Global Markets, Brazil's coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year is forecast to reach around 63.8 million bags (60 kg), of which Arabica coffee is estimated at 40.8 million bags, while Conilon Robusta coffee is expected to reach around 23 million bags. This forecast is 0.46% lower than the estimate in January and is in line with the average forecast for Brazil's coffee production in the next crop year. The Conilon harvest in Brazil has already begun, while the Arabica crop is expected to take place in the middle of the year.

Regarding Arabica coffee inventories, data from the ICE exchange as of April 25 recorded a total inventory of about 822,020 bags, up 0.75% from the previous day and up 3.32% from the previous week. Of which, inventories in Europe accounted for the majority with more than 757,500 bags (equivalent to 92.15% of total inventories), while in the US it was about 64,500 bags. Notably, more than 470,490 bags (57.2%) of the total coffee registered for storage in warehouses were certified as Brazilian Arabica coffee. In addition, the amount of coffee awaiting classification on April 25 was 66,566 bags.

In the domestic market, the price of green coffee beans recorded in the Central Highlands on April 28 was around 130,000-130,700 VND/kg.

According to MXV, world oil prices have returned to a downward trend over the past week, despite the prospect of new trade agreements between major economies gradually showing more positive signals.

Brent crude oil prices fell 1.6% to $66.87 a barrel at the end of the week, while WTI crude oil fell 1.55% to $63.02 a barrel. According to MXV, concerns about future supply surpluses were the main factor putting pressure on oil prices last week.

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/luc-mua-manh-keo-chi-so-mxv-index-quay-lai-vung-2200-diem-102250428091559178.htm