Preventing the expected inflation effect

The Government's price management is being carried out cautiously and flexibly to control inflation and stabilize the macro-economy. Although inflation is still within the target set by the National Assembly for 2025, we cannot be subjective with the inflationary pressure at the end of the year, and limit the increase in expected inflation to stabilize the psychology of consumers and businesses.

Vietnam's economy has maintained macroeconomic stability and achieved many positive results, especially in exports, tourism, public investment and FDI attraction. Illustrative photo: Hong Dat/VNA

According to the General Statistics Office, the average consumer price index (CPI) in the first 9 months of 2025 increased by 3.27% over the same period last year, while core inflation increased by 3.19%. The representative of the Service and Price Department, General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ) said that thanks to the fiscal and monetary policies continuing to be managed consistently, flexibly and proactively responding to international fluctuations, inflation in 2025 is still likely to be controlled within the set target as well as creating room for sustainable economic growth.

“Inflation was effectively controlled thanks to the Prime Minister’s timely issuance of Official Dispatch No. 82/CD-TTg on stepping up the fight against smuggling, trade fraud, counterfeit goods, and intellectual property infringement; and Official Dispatch No. 85/CD-TTg on strengthening management solutions and stabilizing construction material prices,” said Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh, Head of the Service and Price Department.

However, the representative of the General Statistics Office also pointed out that, in the world, inflation continues to decrease but risks from tariffs and political fluctuations make countries more cautious with inflationary pressures.

Specifically, US inflation in August 2025 increased by 2.9% year-on-year; in the Eurozone, inflation increased by 2% year-on-year. This figure in the UK increased by 3.8%; Spain increased by 2.7%; Germany increased by 2.2%...

In addition, inflationary pressure from now until the end of the year also comes from prolonged geopolitical tensions; increased trade protectionism; and US tariff policies affecting world prices and inflation, thereby affecting Vietnam's inflation.

In the country, it is forecasted that by the end of the year, prices of some commodity groups may increase according to seasonal and holiday laws such as: garments, food, construction materials, creating pressure on inflation. High real estate prices lead to high rental housing prices. According to the General Statistics Office, in the calculated basket of goods, there is a rental housing price index, which has increased 2.2 times in the past time compared to the general growth rate of CPI. Not to mention, the end of the year is also the time when production and business activities, public investment increase, creating greater total demand.

Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council and member of the National Assembly's Economic and Financial Committee, said that it is impossible to expect a strong economic growth with zero inflation. The problem lies in controlling inflation at a reasonable level.

Expert Hoang Van Cuong also predicted the potential risk of inflation when money supply increases sharply as well as expected inflation. When businesses and suppliers predict increased costs, they tend to raise selling prices early, creating pressure on the market. To break this barrier of expectations, experts suggest that in management, it is necessary to flexibly and proactively coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to minimize the impact of external fluctuations. Inflation is not too worrying if cash flow and prices are well controlled. This contributes to ensuring the feasibility of economic growth prospects of over 8% this year.

To control inflation in 2025 to achieve the set target, the Ministry of Finance believes that the Government, ministries, branches and localities need to focus on a number of specific solutions; in which, it is necessary to closely monitor price and inflation developments in the world, promptly warn of risks affecting prices and inflation in Vietnam to have appropriate response measures to ensure supply and stabilize domestic prices.

At the same time, ensure smooth supply, circulation and distribution of goods and services, especially strategic goods that are likely to be affected by disruptions in global supply chains and geopolitical tensions.

Along with that, ministries, branches and localities need to closely monitor the price developments of essential goods (food, foodstuffs, pork, gasoline, gas...) to have appropriate management solutions and proactively prepare goods sources for the holidays to limit price increases; at the same time, it is necessary to have measures to control and stabilize prices, strictly handle violations, avoid unreasonable price increases and spread false information causing market instability.

On the other hand, it is necessary to flexibly and synchronously manage monetary policy tools to control inflation according to the set target, contributing to supporting the removal of difficulties in production, business and people's lives; strengthen information and communication to provide timely and transparent information, creating consensus among public opinion on the Government's price management, in order to stabilize consumer psychology and stabilize inflation expectations.

“Factors that help control inflation need to continue to be effective. In particular, the Government, ministries, branches and localities have extensive experience in managing and operating the market, especially in the last months of the year, so the CPI is unlikely to increase suddenly,” said Head of the Committee Nguyen Thu Oanh.

At the recent meeting of the Steering Committee for Price Management, Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc noted that ineffective price management and inflation control will affect economic growth. Therefore, operators need to strengthen management and reasonable price management to promote rapid and sustainable growth, avoiding shortages and price fever. Ministries, branches and localities need to pay attention to developments in essential goods, related to the lives of people and businesses, especially gasoline, electricity, rice, meat... to limit the increase in expected inflation, stabilize the psychology of consumers and businesses, especially at times coinciding with holidays during the year.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/ngan-hieu-ung-lam-phat-ky-vong-20251101084313526.htm