Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in 2024-2025 crop year will decrease

Coffee prices are forecast to decrease slightly in the domestic market on September 29, 2024. According to the General Department of Customs, in the first half of September 2024 (September 1 - September 15), coffee exports continued to decrease by 16.2% compared to the same period last year, to 21,398 tons. However, thanks to the average coffee export price increasing by 75% compared to the same period last year (to 5,469 USD/ton), coffee export turnover reached 117 million USD, up 46% over the same period.

Robusta coffee remains Vietnam’s main product, with 15,155 tons exported in the first half of September, earning $76.583 million. During the same period, Vietnam exported only 1,119 tons of Arabica coffee, earning $4.705 million. Therefore, Robusta coffee export volume is 14,036 tons higher than Arabica.

Accumulated from the beginning of the year to September 15, Vietnam exported 1.07 million tons of coffee with a value of 4.13 billion USD. Although it decreased by 12% in volume, Vietnam's coffee export turnover increased by 35.8% compared to the same period.

The impact on the above difference is due to the fact that Vietnam's average coffee export price from the beginning of 2024 to September 15 increased by 54.7% over the same period, from 2,476 USD/ton in the previous period to 3,833 USD/ton in this period.

Coffee price forecast 9/29: Vietnam's Robusta coffee output decreases

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on September 28, 2024 as follows: The domestic coffee market today increased and decreased in opposite directions from 400 - 600 VND/kg in the range of 121,400 - 122,600. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Lak and Kon Tum provinces is 122,600 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,400 VND, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 121,300 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 121,600 VND/kg, a decrease of 400 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 121,600 VND/kg, a decrease of 400 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 121,600 VND/kg, an increase of 6.00 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (September 28) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 122,600 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 122,500 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 9:00 p.m. on September 28, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 5,482 USD/ton, down 45 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price today September 28, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The November 2024 delivery term is 5,203 USD/ton, down 39 USD; the January 2025 delivery term is 5,203 USD/ton, down 39 USD and the March 2025 delivery term is 4,808 USD/ton, down 51 USD.

Coffee price today September 28, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 9:00 p.m. on September 28, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 261.20 - 269.15 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 2024 delivery period is 269.15 cents/lb; down 4.75 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2025 delivery period is 266.90 cents/lb, down 4.85 cents/lb; the May 2025 delivery period is 264.35 cents/lb, down 4.70 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 261.20 cents/lb, down 4.40 cents/lb.

Coffee price today September 28, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 9:00 p.m. on September 28, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 321.56 USD/ton, up 0.16%; the delivery period for March 2025 is 320.90 USD/ton, down 1.79%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 325.45 USD/ton, down 1.87% and the delivery period for July 2025 is 321.30 USD/ton, down 1.77%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast that Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year will reach 27.9 million bags, down from 28 million bags in the previous crop year.

The Brazilian government's Crop Supply Agency (CONAB) also cut its forecast for Brazil's 2024 coffee harvest by more than 4 million bags to 54.79 million bags, down 0.51% from 2023 and nearly 7% from its previous forecast. Arabica production is down 2.52 million bags from the previous report and Robusta is down more than 1.5 million bags to 15.2 million bags, down 6% from the previous year.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-299-san-luong-ca-phe-robusta-cua-viet-nam-nien-vu-2024-2025-se-giam-349014.html