However, many optimistic opinions still believe that the market is cooling down completely healthily to accumulate, waiting for positive information to have a strong enough impact to surpass a new peak.
Cut 4-week bullish streak, though decline is negligible
The world stock market maintained positive developments during the week of June 2-6 thanks to some supporting information such as the US employment report, or the European Central Bank's monetary policy reduction. Accordingly, the S&P 500 index increased by 1.5%; Nasdaq Composite increased by +2.2%; Dow Jones increased by +1.2%...
Major indices in Europe also increased well, such as: MSCI Europe ex-UK increased +2.1%; FTSE 100 (UK) increased +0.6%; DAX (Germany) increased +2.2%; CAC 40 (France) increased +1.5%...
In Asia, markets were divided. While Nikkei 225 (Japan) increased +1.3%; Kospi (South Korea) increased slightly +0.9%; the Chinese market was little changed because the Hong Kong market was closed for a holiday...
After a good increase in the first two sessions of the week, the Vietnamese stock market saw profit-taking pressure increase as the VN-Index approached the 1,350-point threshold.
VN-Index closed the week at 1,329.89 points, down -2.71 points, equivalent to a decrease of -0.2% compared to the previous week, breaking the 4-week consecutive increase streak. From the peak set during the week, VN-Index also decreased by more than -21 points and closed near the low compared to the time when this index reached its highest level of 1,351.14 points.
While the VN30-Index also decreased slightly by -0.33%, the market was reversed by the group of small and medium-sized stocks, Midcap and Smallcap increased by +0.75% and +0.91% respectively.
On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the two main indices also had positive developments. In particular, the HNX-Index increased by +5.39 points for the week, ending the week at 228.61 points, equivalent to an increase of +2.41% compared to the previous week. The UPCoM-Index increased by +0.4 points to close at 98.89 points.
Despite the adjustment with 3 consecutive sessions of decline towards the end of the week, the market breadth still improved compared to last week thanks to the increase in the first 2 sessions of the week. Some groups of stocks with outstanding increases: Viettel (+3.82%), Electricity production and distribution (+3.41%), Public investment (+2.26%), Real estate (+2.1%), Natural rubber (+1.77%)...
Market liquidity last week remained at a good level and was equivalent to the previous week. The average trading value of the entire market reached VND25,495 billion/session. However, matched liquidity decreased slightly by -4.7% to VND22,613 billion/session, but was still higher than the average figure of 20 sessions.
Accumulated from the beginning of the year, total market liquidity reached VND 20,607 billion/session, down -15% over the same period and down -2.3% compared to the average level in 2024.
Liquidity decreased slightly but cash flow was strong in small and medium-sized stocks. Some stock groups attracted cash flow such as: Oil and gas, Securities, food, electricity production and distribution, Viettel...
Foreign investors maintained their net selling trend and extended it to the third consecutive week of net selling. Last week, foreign investors net sold -2,071 billion VND. Last week, foreign investors competed to collect 2 securities stocks: APG (+413 billion VND) and VND (+338 billion VND), while strongly net selling VHM (-1,770 billion VND) and STB (-423 billion VND)...
| In terms of valuation, the market's current P/E (ttm) is at 13.66x, up from 12.3x in early May, 1 standard deviation higher (13.4x) but still lower than in early April (14.63x) when at the same price level. The market's current valuation is still 18.7% lower than the historical average (16.79x). |
Medium and long-term uptrend remains, although short-term correction may occur
Thus, the lack of supportive information after the shareholders' meeting season and the announcement of the first quarter business results, as well as the waiting for the results of the Vietnam-US trade negotiations, has affected the momentum of investors' psychology. Therefore, profit-taking pressure is always present when the VN-Index enters the peak area.
Cash flow is still quite good, but the cash flow has not clearly circulated to the leading groups but mainly to a few groups of stocks, or to speculative stocks with quick entry and exit. The fact that the market has not broken through the peak and liquidity remains at a fairly high level can affect investor sentiment and lead to short-term profit-taking.
Technically, the VN-Index is under selling pressure and a short correction is likely. The VN-Index continues to be tested at the 1,350-point area, but the possibility of a drop to around the support level of 1,320 points cannot be ruled out. In a more cautious scenario, the VN-Index may retest the threshold around 1,300 points; however, the medium-term uptrend is still maintained at this point.
In the base scenario, the VN-Index corrects to the support zone around 1,320 points and does not affect the market's uptrend while waiting for the negotiation results. In the conservative scenario, the divergence signal causes the VN-Index to correct and signal the formation of a double-top pattern, the market may return to test the support zone of 1,300 points.
The domestic stock market is entering a rather unpredictable phase as supporting information is unclear. The market is waiting for information on US-Vietnam tariff negotiations as the 90-day tariff suspension period approaches. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump sent positive signals about trade negotiations with China as the US and China will hold trade negotiations in London on June 9.
In addition, the market is also waiting for the Fed's policy meeting in mid-June. With positive signals from the US labor market, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this time is no longer as high as before.
Currently, with a cautious perspective, many opinions believe that the stock market in the new week may enter a short-term correction phase. However, the market is still in a normal correction phase and may enter an accumulation phase before reaching a new peak. Therefore, investors should closely observe and monitor the market during this period. Investors should focus on groups, industries with their own stories or groups of stocks with long-term investment value.
Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-vn-index-gap-kho-o-nguong-1350-diem-xu-huong-ngan-han-dang-suy-yeu-post885485.html
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