Ukraine faces a challenging year on the battlefield

The recent series of attacks shows that Russia's military potential is still very strong, while Ukraine faces many problems, especially a lack of aid.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has heated up in recent days as both sides have carried out large-scale attacks on each other’s territory. On December 29, Russia launched 158 missiles and suicide drones (UAVs) at a series of key Ukrainian cities, the highest number since the beginning of the war, killing 31 people and injuring more than 130.

A day later, the Ukrainian army shelled the Russian border province of Belgorod in response, killing 24 people and injuring more than 100. That same night, Moscow launched a retaliatory attack on Ukrainian command posts and military facilities in the Kharkov province using missiles and UAVs.

The two sides continued to exchange attacks in the first days of the new year, the largest being Russia's attack on January 2, when Moscow deployed 134 missiles of various types and 35 suicide drones against Ukraine. Kiev said its air defenses shot down 10 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, 62 Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, and 35 suicide drones.

Justin Bronk, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said this was evidence that Russia had the capacity to prolong the war in Ukraine, contrary to the previous predictions of some observers. "Russia has successfully transformed its economy to a wartime model," Bronk said.

Explosions in the Ukrainian capital Kiev during an airstrike on January 2. Photo: Reuters — Explosions in the Ukrainian capital Kiev during an airstrike on January 2. Photo: *Reuters*

Some Western military experts and defense officials have repeatedly stated that Moscow’s arsenal, including long-range missiles, is nearing depletion due to high frequency of use. However, recent information shows that the Russian defense industry has switched to wartime working mode to ensure production speed to meet the needs of the campaign in Ukraine.

A report by RUSI last October said that Russia now produces around 100 long-range missiles a month, a 2.5-fold increase compared to February 2022. At a meeting last month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the country's arms companies "have quadrupled their capacity" compared to when the war first began, with UAV production up 16.8 times and artillery shells up 17.5 times.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a defense budget of 10.8 trillion rubles (about $122 billion) for 2024, up about 70% from 2023 and equivalent to 6% of GDP, to meet growing demands on the battlefield.

Iskander-M ballistic missile launcher at an exhibition outside Moscow, Russia in August 2022. Photo: Reuters — Iskander-M ballistic missile launcher at an exhibition outside Moscow, Russia in August 2022. Photo: *Reuters*

Western and Ukrainian officials have recently had to change their views on the state of Russia's arsenal. Vadym Skibitsky, deputy director of the Main Directorate of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR), said in early November 2023 that Russia had nearly 900 long-range missiles, no less than a year ago, although the country's intelligence agency in March said that Moscow had only "90 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 45 Iskander-K cruise missiles and 36 Kh-22 anti-ship missiles" in stock.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said late last November that Russia was stockpiling missiles to prepare for large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy and military infrastructure during the winter, not that the country had run out of long-range weapons.

According to observers, Russia's goal in concentrating its forces on attacking Ukraine recently is to weaken Kiev's fighting strength, forcing the country to sit at the negotiating table in a weak position.

The series of attacks is also a way for Russia to quickly deplete Ukraine of air defense missiles, especially ammunition for modern complexes provided by the West such as Patriot or NASAM, in the context of Kiev's lack of ammunition due to a sharp decrease in foreign military aid.

As Ukraine's air defense network has many holes due to lack of missiles, Russian military aircraft can approach many targets and strike with short-range weapons, instead of long-range missiles with high cost and limited supply, thereby increasing their advantage in the conflict.

President Putin on January 2 affirmed that Russia will continue to step up attacks on Ukraine in retaliation for Kiev's shelling of Belgorod. Ukrainian officials said that Russia is capable of repeating the raids on a similar scale, or even larger than the ones it has carried out in recent days.

"Russia can launch 300 suicide drones and 150 missiles at once to attack us," said Ukrainian MP Sasha Ustinova.

Analysts say the upcoming Russian attacks will be a major test of Ukraine's fighting spirit, as many people in the country are tired of the continuing conflict.

The situation is even more difficult for Ukraine, which is facing a number of internal problems. President Zelensky seems to be at odds with Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Zaluzhny, over the "unexpected" results of the counteroffensive.

In a commentary in the Economist in November, General Zaluzhny declared that the war in Ukraine was at a stalemate and that Kiev was unlikely to make “any breakthrough” without more support.

President Zelensky immediately denied the comments, and officials in his office publicly expressed their displeasure with General Zaluzhny. Although Mr Zelensky later denied any conflict with his top general, allies of the Ukrainian president continued to criticize Mr Zaluzhny, with one lawmaker saying he was responsible for Ukraine’s stalled offensive and should resign.

Ukrainians are in a heated debate over a plan to mobilize 450,000-500,000 additional troops that President Volodymyr Zelensky announced late last year. He said the military proposed the move to make a major step forward in the conflict with Russia. The new bill proposes lowering the military conscription age for men from 27 to 25, as well as adjusting the rules on groups of people exempt from military service.

The bill's announcement has sparked controversy on social media in Ukraine, as the country's military faces a shortage of troops on the battlefield.

Russian Msta-SM2 self-propelled gun on the Ukrainian battlefield in January 2023. Photo: RIA Novosti — Russian Msta-SM2 self-propelled gun on the Ukrainian battlefield in January 2023. Photo: *RIA Novosti*

Cracks in the West’s stronghold of support for Ukraine are another concern for Kiev. According to a report released last December by the Kiel Institute, a German aid watchdog for Ukraine, new military, financial and humanitarian aid commitments to Ukraine from August to October this year totaled nearly $2.3 billion, down 87% from the same period in 2022. This is also the lowest level since Russia began its war in Ukraine in late February 2022.

The reasons are believed to be the world's attention shifting away from the conflict in the Gaza Strip, Western countries' frustration with Ukraine's stalled counteroffensive, and internal disagreements in a number of countries, including the US. The US Congress has yet to approve a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, due to Republicans' demands to include a provision to strengthen control of the southern border.

The issue of reduced Western aid is having a significant impact on the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield. General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group in charge of the Ukrainian army’s southern front, said last month that the force was running short of artillery shells across the entire frontline, forcing units on the southeastern front to scale back operations and go on the defensive.

Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdeevka military agency, also warned that Ukraine could soon lose the strategic city if it does not receive additional ammunition from the US and its allies.

Still, the outlook is not all bleak for Kiev. President Zelensky said last month that Ukraine’s arms production in 2023 would triple compared to last year, especially artillery shells. The country is also stepping up its integration with the international arms industry and has reached cooperation agreements with some of the world’s leading countries and defense corporations.

Ukraine's UAV production line is being systematized, with the goal of manufacturing more than one million units by 2024.

In his recent New Year's message, Mr. Zelensky also mentioned that Ukraine had caused great damage to the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet in 2023.

On December 26 last year, the Russian Air Force announced that it had launched a cruise missile at the port of Feodosia in Crimea, destroying the large Russian landing ship Novocherkassk. Kiev had previously repeatedly attacked military targets in the territory, causing serious damage to several Russian military vessels.

Leksiy Danilov, head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (RNBO), said that about 20% of the Black Sea Fleet's forces had "disappeared" after being continuously hit by Kiev since the beginning of the war.

According to observers, this shows that Ukraine is capable of causing great damage to Russia despite possessing only a limited number of long-range missiles, such as the Storm Shadow or ATACMS series. "If Ukraine is transferred missiles with even longer ranges, they can completely destroy Russia's logistics system," said Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe.

Some also believe that Russia's large-scale strikes could have a positive effect on Ukraine, making its people more united. "Russia wants to threaten Ukraine with missiles and make people feel afraid. In fact, each large attack from Russia makes the Ukrainian people more united," commented Ukrainian journalist Kristina Berdynskykh.

Overall, though, the outlook for Kiev is not optimistic, at least until military aid from the West is restored. According to Peter Rough, an expert at the US-based Hudson Institute, Ukraine's expected counteroffensive is "completely over" and the country needs to focus on defense rather than offense in the coming time.

"If the US Congress does not soon approve additional aid to Kiev, even holding the defense line will not be easy," he said.