52 million Thai voters decide the most important election result

Some 52 million Thai voters, including 4 million new voters, are heading to the polls in a general election seen as a pivotal turning point for the country after a decade of pro- military rule.

Voters will be given two ballots, one for their local constituency, and the other for their preferred party at the national level.

Polling stations across the Southeast Asian nation opened at 8am on May 14, and will close at 5pm the same day.

Thailand's Election Commission said it expects voter turnout to be 80% in this year's general election, higher than the 75% it recorded in the last election in 2019.

The first unofficial results will begin to appear within hours of polls closing.

Results from 95,000 polling stations nationwide will be compiled, verified and published on the Election Commission of Thailand's website from 7pm, with unofficial results expected to be available by 11pm the same day.

World - 52 million Thai voters decide the most important election results — Volunteers check ballots before delivering them to polling stations. Photo: Al Jazeera

The 2023 general election is shaping up to be a showdown between the pro-democracy opposition, led by the Pheu Thai Party (Pheu Thai) and the MFP, and the ruling military bloc, including the United Thai National Party (UTNP) of incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha.

Although polls show the opposition has a significant lead, it will not be easy to secure the minimum 376 seats out of the 750 seats (500 in the House of Representatives, 250 in the Senate) needed to form a new government .

The military-drafted constitution allows the 250-member Senate, all handpicked by the pro-military government that took power in 2014, to vote for the country's next prime minister.

According to the latest data from the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), Pheu Thai, led by the powerful Shinawatra clan, is expected to win with more than 38% of the vote, followed by the MFP with nearly 34%. Mr Prayuth's UTNP won just 12% of the vote.

World - 52 million Thai voters decide the most important election results (Figure 2). — Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party (MFP). Photo: Getty Images

World - 52 million Thai voters decide the most important election results (Figure 3). — Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the Pheu Thai Party. Photo: Shutterstock

Issues including economic stagnation, conscription and even marijuana policy have been hotly debated throughout a long campaign. But at the core of the May 14 general election is the fight for democracy, led by young people demanding an end to the cycle of coups and military-backed governments.

According to experts, there are a number of “uncertainties” surrounding the election in this Southeast Asian country, including whether the pro-military faction will accept the results, whether the winning party can successfully form a coalition government, and even concerns about the possibility of major political parties dissolving as seen in previous elections…

“The election is the culmination of a tumultuous tug-of-war that has left the country in political deadlock with below-average economic performance for two decades, marked by two military coups, two constitutions... and the dissolution of major political parties,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

“But what makes Thailand’s 2023 election fundamentally different is the rise of the MFP,” Professor Pongsudhirak told The Telegraph. “Thailand’s new front, and the battle cry of the younger generations, is reform and adjustment of the military and the monarchy.”

World - 52 million Thai voters decide the most important election results (Figure 4). — Mr. Prayut Chan-o-cha, current Prime Minister of Thailand, leader of the United Thai National Party (UTNP). Photo: The Star

Pheu Thai – a populist party leading the polls and led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter and granddaughter of two prominent former prime ministers ousted in recent coups – is the MFP’s most obvious ally.

Together, Pheu Thai and the MFP are certain to win more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives, but the Senate's influence over the election of the prime minister could hamper the opposition's progress.

The conflict between the leaders of the two parties over how to proceed with reform of the monarchy also means that they “will not be able to form an alliance easily after the election,” said Professor Pongsudhirak .

Minh Duc (According to La Prensa Latina, The Telegraph, Al Jazeera)

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