ADB: Vietnam's economy expected to remain resilient in 2025 and 2026

ADB said that strong import-export growth along with a sharp increase in foreign investment disbursement has boosted Vietnam's economic growth in the first half of 2025. (Illustration photo: THANH DAT)

On July 23, ADB released the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report for July 2025, according to which the financial institution forecast that Vietnam's economy is expected to remain stable in 2025 and 2026, with GDP growth of 6.3% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026. Inflation is expected to decrease to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.

Strong export-import growth along with a sharp increase in foreign investment disbursement boosted the economy in the first half of 2025, ADB said.

According to ADB, foreign direct investment commitments increased by 32.6%, while disbursements increased by 8.1% year-on-year, showing the international community's strong confidence in the country's economic prospects. Vietnam.

Public investment disbursement also reached the highest level since 2018, reaching 31.7% of the yearly plan and increasing by 19.8% over the same period last year.

ADB also said that boosting exports to cope with tariff instability has boosted trade growth, but growth may slow down in the short term due to pressure from tariff policy this of the United States.

Despite the increased risks from tariff uncertainty, domestic reforms, if implemented effectively and quickly, can mitigate the risks as domestic factors are strengthened, according to the financial institution.

Regionally, ADB has revised down its economic growth forecast for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific for this year and next, with growth at 4.7% in 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from the April forecast, while the forecast for 2026 has also been revised down from 4.7% to 4.6%.

Economies in Southeast Asia are forecast to grow at 4.2% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, down about 0.5 percentage point per year from the ADB's previous forecast released in April.

Bucking the downward trend are the economies in the Caucasus and Central Asia, with the subregion’s growth forecasts raised by 0.1 percentage points for both this year and next, to 5.5% and 5.1%, respectively, largely due to expectations of rising oil production.

Inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific is forecast to continue to cool, as lower oil prices and strong agricultural output help to reduce food price pressures. ADB forecasts regional inflation at 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, down from April’s forecasts of 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

The ADB's downgrade of the regional growth forecast is mainly due to an expected decline in exports amid higher US import tariffs and an uncertain global trade environment, coupled with weakening domestic demand.

The ADB report also stated that risks that could continue to affect the growth outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific include escalating trade tensions and US tariffs, conflicts and geopolitical tensions that disrupt global supply chains and push up energy prices...

“Asia and the Pacific has weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year. However, the economic outlook is weakening in the face of heightened risks and global uncertainty. Economies in the region need to continue strengthening their economic fundamentals and promoting trade openness and regional integration to support investment, jobs, and growth,” said Albert Park, ADB Chief Economist.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/adb-kinh-te-viet-nam-duoc-ky-vong-van-se-vung-vang-trong-nam-2025-va-2026-3368196.html