War in Ukraine: Russia "tightens its pockets", German expert says Avdiivka is in danger

Russian artillery fighting in Ukraine (Photo: Sky News).

German expert: Russia surrounds, Avdiivka is in danger

According to Julian Röpke, a military expert for the German newspaper BILD , who is said to support Kiev, Moscow continues to attack Avdiivka and approach the railway line in the north, while they also raid the village of Severnoye in the south. The situation of Kiev forces in this strategic city is dire.

Journalist Röpke commented that Russia is "tightening its pockets" as it continues to make new developments, narrowing the corridor of the logistics supply line for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) in Avdiivka from 9 to 7km. The only road in the territory controlled by Ukraine still passes through the village of Orlovka.

Russia has essentially taken complete control of this “mouth of the bag” with firepower. “If the Russians take Avdiivka, it means the Ukrainian counteroffensive ends in failure,” he said.

Map of the Ukrainian war in Donetsk with the hot spot being Avdiivka (Photo: SITREP).

In turn, the Russian Aerospace Forces responded with strikes on the Avdiivka coking plant.

According to RaZVedka channel, on the night of October 28, the Ukrainian command evacuated the command post from Avdiivka when it realized that the Russian Armed Forces planned to intensify their offensive in this area.

Russian losses near Avdiivka could be worst in 2023

The British Defense Intelligence Agency assessed on October 28 that Moscow suffered some of its heaviest losses in 2023 near Avdiivka and it appears that the Russian command's requirements once again contradict actual military capabilities, European Pravda reported.

Intelligence assessments indicate that the Russians deployed up to eight brigades near Avdiivka.

UK Defence Intelligence: "These elements are likely to have suffered some of the highest casualty rates in Russia in 2023 so far... The nature of the operation suggests that Moscow's core political -military challenge remains the same as it has been throughout much of the conflict. Political leaders are demanding more territory but the military is unable to generate effective action."

Special Forces Commander Akhmat: Ukraine Surrenders More Often

General Apty Alaudinov, deputy commander of the 2nd Army and commander of Russia's Akhmat special forces, told RIA Novosti that Kiev forces began surrendering more frequently in all directions, including the Bakhmut direction, where Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Akhmat units every two to three days.

"Indeed, in all directions, it should be noted that there have been a lot of prisoners of war recently," said General Alaudinov.

Commander Akhmat stressed that the enemy is suffering huge losses, Kiev's upcoming reserves are being replenished as soon as possible, and the quality of personnel is getting worse, which is why they are suffering heavy losses and often decide to raise the white flag.

Russia eliminates enemy armored group in Zaporizhia

RIA Novosti reported that units of the Russian 1430th Regiment on October 28 destroyed a Ukrainian armored group consisting of two Leopard tanks and two Bradley infantry fighting vehicles during a Ukrainian attack, the commander of the UAV group codenamed "Yakut" said.

“There was an attack from Rabotino, they tried to storm Novoprokopovka. We destroyed two Leopards, two Bradleys with the support of FPV drones and artillery,” he said.

According to Mr. Yakut, if before the enemy operated in large groups, now they move in small groups, using one or two tanks, one or two Bradley infantry fighting vehicles or pickup trucks. He admitted that the most difficult thing is that these vehicles move quickly, so it is impossible to destroy enemy equipment from just one point.

Russian FPV drone destroys Ukrainian Leopard 2 tank (Source: Telegram).

Russia claims to have shot down 36 drones in the Black Sea

TASS reported that the Russian Defense Ministry said that Kiev tried to attack Russian targets with 36 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) but they were shot down by air defense systems over the Black Sea and northwestern Crimea.

"On the night of October 28 and early morning of October 29, the Kiev authorities carried out a drone attack on Russian targets. The air defense systems on duty destroyed 36 UAVs over the Black Sea and the northwestern region of the Crimean peninsula," the ministry said.

Several explosions were heard near Chornomorske and Saky in Crimea late on October 28, the Kyiv Independent reported.

Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on October 24 that recent attacks had deprived the Russian fleet of safe haven and secured transport corridors in the western Black Sea, as Kiev's military sought to force Moscow's forces out of Crimea.

Kiev repels 48 attacks as Moscow pushes across east

Ukrainian forces repelled 48 Russian attacks in several areas on the eastern front, including Avdiivka, Kupyansk, Bakhmut and Marinka over the past day, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

Russia reportedly continued its offensive around Avdiivka in Donetsk, where 10 attacks were repelled.

The Ukrainian military said Moscow forces attempted to retake lost positions near Klischiivka and Andriivka in the Bakhmut region. All six attacks were repelled.

Andriivka is located about 3km south of Klishchiivka and less than 10km south of Bakhmut.

The General Staff said Russian forces launched five missile strikes, including Iskander missiles, against Ukrainian positions, 18 air strikes and 20 artillery strikes across the front line. Ukrainian air defenses shot down three of the four Iskander cruise missiles launched by Russia into Dnipropetrovsk province, while the remaining missile “also failed to reach its target.”

ISW: Ukraine wins on the ground but Russia develops in Bakhmut

Newsweek reported that the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a report summarizing the developments of the war in Ukraine over the past week. Accordingly, the actual situation map shows that Kiev forces have won many victories in the southern region of the front while Russia continues its offensive operations in the eastern region of Donetsk.

According to ISW, Kiev's forces penetrated the eastern bank of the Kherson region in the south while continuing their offensive in the direction of Melitopol in the west of Zaporizhia, as well as near Bakhmut, further north in the Donetsk region.

Geolocated footage from October 27 shows Kiev forces advancing further south under the Antonivsky (Antonivka) bridge, about 6km south of the city of Kherson and less than 5km from the Dnieper River.

ISW said Russian forces attacked along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but achieved no results. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) said its forces had gained unspecified positions in the direction of Kupyansk over the past week.

ISW maps around Luhansk show that on October 22, Russian forces attacked south of Pershotravneve, while three days later, Moscow gained control northeast of Orlyanka.

The institute said Russia's offensive near Bakhmut had made confirmed gains on October 26, with maps showing it had taken control of Vasyukivka to the northeast of the city.

Similar imagery shows Ukraine capturing the northern side of the railway line near Klishchiivka, from October 22, and the eastern side near Andriivka, a day later, where Moscow launched its offensive earlier this month.

The hotly contested town lies on the front line and is the gateway to the city of Donetsk. Russia has made confirmed advances in the area but at high losses in troops and equipment.

A more detailed map around Avdiivka shows Moscow's advance towards the slag dump north of the town on October 23.

Newsweek emailed the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment but has not yet received a response.

Map of the Ukrainian war in the Avdiivka and Bakhmut regions (Photo: ISW).

Reuters: Ukraine conflict boosts US defense industry

The US defense industry saw profits rise as Washington secured new contracts to replenish depleted domestic and European stockpiles, a Reuters report published on October 27 said.

Some of America's biggest defense contractors, such as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, reported surges in revenue as governments around the world, including the United States, increased demand for weapons and ammunition.

The US sent Kiev a significant amount of military equipment from its stockpiles and now that amount must be replaced with new contracts.

The need to replenish the US stockpile is boosting the domestic defense industry, which is also a direct supplier to Ukraine.

This trend is not limited to US defense contractors – Europe is also seeing increased demand and higher revenues.

Ukraine has also seen a significant increase in its domestic defense industry. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said more than 200 domestic companies have begun developing drones.

Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin said Kiev could soon produce tens of thousands of UAVs per month.

According to TASS, Ukrainska Pravda, Newsweek, Reuters, RIA Novosti, European Pravda, BILD, Kyiv Independent

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/chien-su-ukraine-nga-that-tui-chuyen-gia-duc-noi-avdiivka-nguy-ngap-20231029114901914.htm