CIEM announces 2 GDP scenarios for 2024

07/09/2024 14:47

Conference scene (Photo: Thanh ThanhO

(PLVN) - In the low scenario, Vietnam's economic growth (GDP) in 2024 is forecast to reach 6.55%, in the high scenario, GDP could reach 6.95%. In both scenarios, the price index (CPI) is within the target approved by the National Assembly...

Within the framework of the Macroeconomic Reform/Green Growth Program funded by the German government , on the morning of July 9, the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) in collaboration with the German International Cooperation Organization (GIZ) organized a workshop to announce the report "Vietnam's economy in the first 6 months of the year and prospects for the whole year 2024: New driving force for quality growth".

Speaking at the workshop, Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, Director of CIEM, commented that in the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam had to face advantages mixed with difficulties and challenges from the international context, but difficulties and challenges were assessed to be greater than advantages.

In that context, since the beginning of 2024, Vietnam has emphasized the priority of promoting economic growth - on the basis of macroeconomic stability, inflation control, and ensuring major balances.

This comprehensive approach has seen impressive socio-economic results in the first 6 months of the year: Economic growth in the first 6 months reached 6.42%. Inflation was controlled. Export growth reached 14.5%. Foreign direct investment in Vietnam increased in both the number of projects and newly registered capital, total registered capital, and implemented capital.

“More importantly, Vietnam is considered a bright spot in economic reform and integration. Solutions to restructure the economy, develop regions, improve the business environment, increase labor productivity (NSLD) in parallel with digital transformation and green transformation are becoming important policy priorities…”, the Director of CIEM emphasized.

Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, Director of CIEM

At the workshop, CIEM experts announced two scenarios to update macroeconomic forecasts in 2024.

In Scenario 1, GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.55% in 2024. Exports for the whole year of 2024 increased by 9.54% compared to 2023. The average CPI for the whole year of 2024 increased by 4.31% compared to 2023. The trade balance maintained a surplus of 5.7 billion USD.

In Scenario 2, GDP growth is forecast at 6.95% in 2024. Exports for the whole year of 2024 increased by 11.64% compared to 2023. The average CPI for the whole year of 2024 increased by 4.12% compared to 2023. The trade balance achieved a surplus of 7.3 billion USD.

According to Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong, Head of the General Research Department (CIEM), Vietnam still has a lot of room for growth such as developing green finance, developing the night-time economy in some large cities in Vietnam... However, to exploit this potential, it is necessary to remove some current limitations.

For example, for green finance, the limitations are: low liquidity, no official assessment criteria, incomplete legal regulations, risks related to funding...

Or for the night-time economy, the current problems are: Not creating more products for tourists to spend money; No regional connectivity thinking; Applying digital technology to state management does not meet requirements...

Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh especially emphasized the effective implementation of free trade agreements (FTAs). According to her, in addition to the 16 FTAs ​​that are being implemented or have been completed, the Government and Prime Minister also directed the promotion of FTAs ​​with a number of new partners.

“The socio-economic results in the first 6 months of the year are very important, but only the beginning. As the leading research and policy advisory body for the Government and the Ministry of Planning and Investment, CIEM always emphasizes the message of deepening economic institutional reform. Based on the Institute's advice, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has reported to the Government to restore Resolution 02/NQ-CP on improving the business environment and enhancing competitiveness from the beginning of 2024. We have also been actively researching and advising on perfecting the policy and legal framework to take advantage of opportunities from new economic models (green economy, circular economy, sharing economy, creative economy, etc.)”, shared Director Tran Thi Hong Minh.

Policy recommendations

The report makes three policy recommendations: Improving growth quality; Managing appropriate macroeconomic policies; Effectively implementing FTAs.

It is necessary to: Guide the implementation of the Laws; Improve innovation capacity, adapt to major trends (digital transformation, green transformation); Increase labor productivity in the public sector to become a driving force to stimulate labor productivity in other economic sectors; Complete the legal framework for new economic models (circular economy, digital economy, sharing economy, creative economy).

According to CIEM experts, if we only focus on monetary and fiscal easing to boost growth, inflationary pressures will increase. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor inflation developments (the impact of wage increases and price increases of goods with state-controlled prices). In particular, it is necessary to maintain fiscal space to respond to future shocks.

Regarding the effective implementation of FTAs, it is necessary to focus more on facilitating businesses, instead of requiring compliance.

Source: https://baophapluat.vn/ciem-cong-bo-2-kich-ban-gdp-nam-2024-post518116.html