Foreign banks continue to raise Vietnam's 2025 GDP growth forecast

Ngân hàng nước ngoài tiếp tục nâng dự báo tăng trưởng GDP năm 2025 của Việt Nam - Ảnh 1. — Workers at a pottery workshop in Hai Duong (old) - Photo: REUTERS

Citing the reason for the upward adjustment, UOB said Vietnam's economic growth results in 2025 have so far exceeded expectations, with growth of 7.85% in the first three quarters of the year, and the full-year outlook remains positive.

Growth exceeded expectations in the first three quarters of the year

Despite US tariff policies, Vietnam's real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2025 increased strongly by 8.23% over the same period last year, with the driving force still being strong export and manufacturing activities, following the 8.19% growth momentum in the second quarter.

In September, UOB forecast Vietnam's GDP in 2025 at 7.5%, an upward revision from its previous forecast.

In November, UOB further raised its growth forecast to 7.7%, based on positive data in the first three quarters of the year for Vietnam, including robust international trade and strong manufacturing output.

From January to September 2025, our country's export turnover increased by 16% over the same period, of which exports to the US increased by 27.7%, despite being taxed.

Industrial production also recorded a steady increase of 10.8% in the first nine months of the year, higher than the 9.4% increase in the same period in 2024.

The manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, marking the third consecutive month it remained above the 50 threshold, reversing the downward trend of the previous three months.

According to UOB, this shows that the manufacturing outlook is stabilising again, further reinforced by accelerated disbursement of foreign direct investment (FDI) to US$18.8 billion in the first nine months of the year, up 8.5% year-on-year.

If this growth continues in the fourth quarter of 2025, total FDI capital for the whole year could approach the record level of 25.4 billion USD achieved in 2024.

Previously, HSBC Bank also raised Vietnam's growth forecast to 7.9% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 6.6%.

HSBC said Vietnam achieved this achievement when its trade performance in recent times remained strong with double-digit growth, while exports from other ASEAN countries to the US witnessed a slight decline after frontloading activities gradually decreased.

Be careful in the last quarter of the year

However, UOB still maintains its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 at 7.2%, saying that the last quarter of the year will face many challenges in the context of trade tensions and tariffs.

Because Vietnam's economy is highly open, with exports of goods and services accounting for 83% of GDP, the second highest in ASEAN after Singapore (182%), and somewhat dependent on the US market, UOB analyzed that Vietnam may soon face a scenario where orders begin to decline as US businesses have completed their orders early to avoid tariffs and price increases affecting the purchasing power of US consumers.

Thus, to achieve the official growth target of 8.3 - 8.5%, Vietnam's economy in the fourth quarter of 2025 will need to achieve a very high growth rate, from 9.7 - 10.5%.

The US is Vietnam's largest export market in 2024, accounting for 30% of total export turnover of 406 billion USD, followed by China (15%) and South Korea (6%).

Vietnam's main export items to the US include: electrical products HS85 (41.7 billion USD), telephones and related equipment HS84 (28.8 billion USD), furniture HS94 (13.2 billion USD), footwear HS64 (8.8 billion USD), knitted garments HS61 (8.2 billion USD), and non-knitted garments HS62 (6.6 billion USD). These product groups account for nearly 80% of Vietnam's total exports to the US in 2024.

Back to topic

NGHI VU

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ngan-hang-nuoc-ngoai-tiep-tuc-nang-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-nam-2025-cua-viet-nam-20251110162804196.htm