Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan: The government must announce a living wage so that two people can work and raise two children.

Delegate Nguyen Thien Nhan - Photo: GIA HAN

On the afternoon of November 10, during the discussion session on the Population Law project, Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan ( National Assembly delegate from Ho Chi Minh City) continued to speak about the current situation and proposed a number of solutions to increase the birth rate and respond to the aging population.

The proposed maximum support level for women giving birth is only 1 - 1.5% of the cost of raising a child.

According to Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan, the Population Law project will determine the country's development in the coming years, because the risk of aging and population decline needs to be resolved soon. However, the solutions proposed in the draft Population Law 2025 are not enough to ensure a stable replacement level of fertility in Vietnam, so the risk of fertility continuing to decline.

According to him, the draft impact assessment report proposes solutions to maintain the replacement birth rate, including: women get an additional month of maternity leave and receive 6.2 million VND; fathers get 5 more days off and receive 695,000 VND; people who give birth to a second child before the age of 35 are awarded 2 million VND; low birth rate areas are supported with 2 million VND; ethnic minority women giving birth are supported with 2 million VND.

Thus, in total, a woman giving birth can receive a maximum support of about 13 million VND/birth.

While the current national average minimum wage is about 4 million VND, it is only enough to sustain the life of a worker. However, to raise a child from birth to adulthood, at least 900 million VND is needed.

Therefore, the maximum support level for women giving birth as proposed in the draft is only 1 - 1.5% of the cost of raising a child.

From the above analysis, Mr. Nhan proposed to rewrite the concept of replacement fertility and emphasized the viewpoint that population work is all for the happiness of the people, for the rapid and sustainable development of the country, for the longevity of the nation. "Do not trade off high economic growth for reducing fertility," Mr. Nhan suggested.

The important solution that Mr. Nhan proposed is to change the relationship of minimum wage to create long-term development for the country. Specifically, the State must announce a living wage for one working person to support one child; two working people must support two children.

"This should be considered a mandatory regulation that business owners must ensure for their employees," Mr. Nhan proposed, adding that the implementation roadmap may take from 5 to 10 years.

Spending huge amounts of money is still difficult to solve the problem of population aging and increasing birth rate.

Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan - Photo: GIA HAN

Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan then explained the opinions of delegates interested in the two draft Laws on Population and Law on Disease Prevention.

Ms. Lan said that the development of the Population Law this time is of special importance, as Vietnam shifts from the policy of "Population and family planning" to "Population and development".

The new law is expected to create a legal foundation for adjusting population size, structure, distribution and quality, associated with sustainable development.

The Minister of Health said that the drafting agency has carefully studied the delegates' comments, especially the content related to population and development policies in the current context of rapid aging.

According to Ms. Lan, through careful research of reports and summaries by delegate Nguyen Thien Nhan (HCMC), it shows that international experience in responding to population aging and increasing birth rates requires huge resources.

“Countries like Japan and South Korea have provided huge economic support packages to encourage childbirth and improve population structure, but the results are still an extremely challenging problem. Even European countries, despite their developed social welfare systems, have not been able to reverse this trend,” said Ms. Lan.

According to Minister Dao Hong Lan, the population issue is not only a matter of the health sector, but requires solutions from all ministries and sectors.

“We must make efforts and have many synchronous and long-term solutions, while taking into account the socio-economic and cultural development factors of each locality,” she emphasized.

The Minister also emphasized that the law is built in the direction of framework law, stipulating general principles, and the Government will specify them through sub-law documents suitable for each stage of the country's development.

“The law will clearly define policies to maintain replacement fertility, reduce gender imbalance at birth, improve population quality, communicate and educate about population, and allocate resources appropriately to ensure feasibility,” Ms. Lan added.

From 2035, the country faces a labor shortage?

Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan analyzed that in Japan, the aging population has pushed back the achievements of GDP growth over the past decades and created a decline in the years to come, posing a lesson for Vietnam.

According to Mr. Nhan, the forecast of Vietnam's replacement fertility rate in 2050 is 1.63 and in 2100 is 1.38. Therefore, he assessed that in the next 10 years, Vietnam will still maintain two growth drivers: labor productivity and increased labor force. But from 2035, the country will only have one driving force: increased labor productivity.

The decline in employment could also lead to a labor shortage, hindering economic development in the coming years. "This is the biggest challenge to Vietnam's development in the 21st century," Mr. Nhan emphasized.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ong-nguyen-thien-nhan-nha-nuoc-phai-cong-bo-muc-luong-du-song-de-2-nguoi-di-lam-nuoi-duoc-2-con-20251110174941015.htm