List of "bright" stocks at the end of the year

The market experienced a volatile trading week, but the upward trend dominated. In the first session of the week, the VN-Index increased by more than 18 points when information appeared that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to start lowering interest rates from the first quarter of 2024.

However, the following sessions saw strong market fluctuations, with selling pressure concentrated in the financial services, real estate and retail groups.

At the end of week 4 - 8/12, VN-Index increased by 22.28 points, equivalent to 2.02% compared to the end of last week to 1,124.44 points.

Investors' optimism returned when the average total trading value during the week reached VND24,237 billion, up 60% compared to the previous week, especially in the session on December 7, the total trading value of the market reached the billion USD threshold.

Foreign investors are still a minus point when they net sold for the 5th consecutive week, notably in the session on December 5, the net selling value reached 1,557.7 billion VND. At the end of the week, foreign investors net sold a total value of 4,056 billion VND. VHM was the code that foreign investors net sold the most in the week with a value of 979 billion VND.

Regarding the market trend in the last trading weeks of the year, Mr. To Quoc Bao - Head of Market Strategy Group, PSI Petroleum Securities Company and Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Analysis, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company both said that the series of alternating increases and decreases will continue.

Nguoi Dua Tin (NDT): Last week, the market witnessed a consensus in stock prices and domestic cash flow. However, foreign investors sold the most net since the beginning of the year. What is your assessment of this development, and will this move affect investor sentiment?

Mr. To Quoc Bao: The fact that the market has continuously had explosive trading sessions with significantly improved liquidity is one of the extremely positive signals in the current context.

Domestic investors are confidently disbursing and raising their expectations for the market despite strong negative reactions of net selling from foreign investors.

It is currently difficult to confirm whether the VN-Index's upward momentum will continue or not, however, the return of domestic cash flow is necessary to balance the market index as well as create more confidence for investors when the index has more time to accumulate at the current price range.

The trend of net withdrawal of foreign capital has appeared and been maintained over the past years. However, foreign capital flow no longer has much direct impact on the Vietnamese stock market index, considering its scale, accounting for only more than 10% of the transaction value on the market. The strong net selling of foreign capital in recent sessions may stem from the year-end portfolio restructuring at some funds.

Mr. Nguyen The Minh: Foreign investors have had the strongest net selling week since the beginning of the year. I think that foreign investors may be mainly restructuring their portfolios at the end of the year. They are taking advantage of the market's growth momentum to sell off stocks with low growth performance.

In my opinion, foreign investors may soon return to net buying in the last week of December or early January 2024 after they have completed their portfolio restructuring and the principle is not to keep a high proportion of cash in the portfolio for a long time.

In addition, foreign investors may not directly affect market developments because the proportion of foreign investors' trading prices is still low, at about 7.5% since the beginning of the year, but foreign investors' trading movements may indirectly affect investor sentiment.

Finance - Banking - Stock Prism 11/12: Naming the group of 'bright' stocks at the end of the year — VN-Index performance week 4 - 8/12 (Source: FireAnt).

Investor: The market is entering the last trading weeks of the year. What do you think is the noteworthy information and how should investors act at this time?

Mr. To Quoc Bao: In the short term, under strong net selling pressure from foreign investors, the VN-Index will likely continue to extend its alternating up and down streak to retest the balance of supply and demand of cash flow as well as stabilize investor sentiment around the current point. Deep downward pressure at the present time is unlikely.

Regarding the macro situation, the economy in the last month of the year is forecast to be vibrant when public investment projects will continue to be vigorously disbursed, credit growth will also be boosted. At the same time, economic growth will recover strongly in the fourth quarter when the consumption index, import and export, public investment, industrial production all recover strongly, along with the low interest rate base, which will be the driving force for more expectations in the market.

Investors can start disbursing funds for stock groups that are attracting good demand such as securities, banking, steel, oil and gas, public investment and seafood, etc.

Mr. Nguyen The Minh: The short-term trend of the general market is still neutral. Therefore, investors should still hold a balanced proportion of stocks and the index should increase the proportion of stocks when the VN30 index surpasses the resistance level of 1,120 points in the coming sessions.

The State Bank's consideration of extending the duration of Circular 02 may have a direct positive impact on the banking group of stocks. Because the pressure of bad debt can be reduced, banks will also reduce the pressure of provisioning, creating more room to promote the growth of this group of stocks, especially banks with high real estate debt balances in the banking system.

At the same time, the extension of Circular 02 also has a positive impact on many other stock groups such as real estate.

In general, I think Circular 02 will have a positive impact on the stock market, in which banking and real estate stocks may be the two groups of stocks that directly benefit from this.

In addition, I also expect retail, steel, chemical, and oil and gas service stocks to remain the stocks that attract cash flow at the present time .

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