Vietnam’s robusta coffee output is forecast to decline by 1% in the 2024/25 crop year to 27.85 million 60-kg bags and by about 9% compared to the 2021/22 crop year. This reflects a long-term trend of declining production while global demand continues to increase, according to the USDA report.
Coffee price today 9/24/2024
World coffee prices increased sharply on both London and New York exchanges, regaining the losses of the last two sessions of the week.
Domestic coffee prices have increased sharply following world prices, currently trading in the range of 120,200 - 120,700 VND/kg.
According to experts, the strong increase in the first session of this week came from the transfer of speculative money from investors after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) strongly reduced interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East became increasingly heated, along with concerns about port congestion in the Red Sea region. Accordingly, capital was redirected to gold and only a part to coffee.
The amount of qualified robusta coffee last weekend reported a decrease of over 5 thousand tons, which also contributed to the good price increase at the beginning of this week.
In addition, the global coffee market is expected to continue to fluctuate due to weather issues in the two leading suppliers, Vietnam and Brazil, with the latest impact being forecasts of rain in Brazil, which have not yet been seen. Brazilian exporter Escritório Carvalhaes said that the rains will be uneven and low in intensity, making it unlikely to reduce temperatures. In fact, a survey of more than 1,700 producers forecasts a 23% decline in Brazil’s arabica output in the 2024-2025 crop year. This is much lower than the official estimate from Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB), which shows a modest decline of just 0.5%.
Meanwhile, actual trading in Vietnam’s domestic market is quiet due to limited inventory, a looming shortage in the future, Vietnam’s harvest is expected to fall by about 10-15% this season due to climate change and shrinking coffee acreage. Coffee acreage in Vietnam has been declining as farmers have switched to alternative crops such as durian and avocado in recent years. According to a USDA report, declining groundwater and shade rates also pose long-term challenges, as many Vietnamese farmers rely on wells for irrigation and forest cover to reduce evaporation.
Volcafe, one of the major coffee traders, forecasts a severe global robusta supply shortage in 2024-2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of such a situation.
 |
| Domestic coffee prices today, September 24, increased sharply by 1,200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: ohman.vn) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the first trading session of the week (September 23), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply, the delivery term in November 2024 increased by 217 USD, trading at 5,276 USD/ton. The delivery term in January 2025 increased by 200 USD, trading at 5,003 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the December 2024 delivery term increasing by 12.90 cents, trading at 263.65 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery term increased by 12.65 cents, trading at 261.30 cents/lb. The average trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices today, September 24, increased sharply by 1,200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com |
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cited data from the International Trade Center (ITC) saying that in the first 7 months of the year, China imported 160,500 tons of various types of coffee, worth 823.9 million USD, up 67% in volume and 45.1% in value over the same period last year.
In terms of supply, China imports coffee from 63 countries and territories around the world. The main sources of coffee for the Chinese market include: Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Ethiopia...
Vietnam is the third largest coffee supplier to China, with a volume of 24.3 thousand tons, worth 119.7 million USD, up 13% in volume and 46.6% in value over the same period last year. With this result, Vietnam currently accounts for 15.1% of China's total coffee imports.
Notably, the average import price of coffee from Vietnam to China increased sharply by 29.7% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 4,925 USD/ton. Meanwhile, the average import price from some other leading suppliers such as Brazil, Colombia, and Malaysia decreased.
China is one of the fastest growing coffee markets in the world as coffee consumption in the country continues to increase, according to the Import and Export Department. According to Giiresearch.com , the size of the Chinese coffee market is estimated to reach US$2.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$2.3 billion by 2029, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.90% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
China’s coffee consumption is driven by the demand of young people, along with the rise in retail e-commerce. Instant coffee is one of the popular types of coffee consumed due to its convenience. To increase market share in China, the Vietnamese coffee industry needs to actively innovate product designs, packaging and improve quality to meet the increasing demands of consumers. In addition, businesses can focus on social media platforms and online distribution channels to promote and build product brands.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2492024-gia-ca-phe-cung-lao-ve-phia-truoc-nguon-cung-robusta-co-the-thieu-nghiem-trong-lam-gi-de-tang-thi-phan-tai-trung-quoc-287445.html
![[Photo] Top players gather at the 2025 Nhan Dan Newspaper National Table Tennis Championship](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2025/5/23/9ad5f6f4faf146b08335e5c446edb107)
Comment (0)