World coffee prices turn up, Vietnam's coffee exports may reach 8 billion USD

World coffee prices in the morning trading session on May 1 turned to increase again, domestic coffee prices were stable due to low buying and selling activities during the holiday.

Global coffee supply is forecast to decrease due to weather impacts - Photo: N.TRI

At the end of the early morning trading session on May 1 on the London Stock Exchange (UK), Robusta coffee prices increased from 1.01-1.34%; on the New York Stock Exchange (USA), Arabica coffee prices increased slightly from 0.24-0.47% compared to the previous trading session.

Robusta coffee prices for July 2025 delivery increased by 71 USD/ton to 5,369 USD/ton; for January 2026 delivery, increased by 53 USD/ton to 5,155 USD/ton.

The highest Arabica price was also for delivery in July 2025, up to 8,840 USD/ton, an increase of 20 USD/ton.

Domestic records show that the price of green coffee beans traded is currently relatively stable compared to the previous two days, with the highest price at about 131,000 VND/kg.

Coffee prices in Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Lam Dong are at 129,500-131,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, in Dak Nong, Binh Phuoc , Dong Nai, they are at 127,500-129,500 VND/kg.

A representative of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that the stability of domestic coffee prices is mainly due to the holiday season, reduced demand and limited supply. In addition, farmers and exporters tend to hold back their goods.

According to experts, the global coffee market is experiencing strong price fluctuations due to climate change, affecting coffee supplies in major producing countries.

In Vietnam, dry weather has affected quality and productivity. The global coffee market is at risk of short-term supply shortages, especially Robusta coffee, Vietnam's main crop.

According to Vicofa, in the first quarter of 2025, domestic coffee prices will fluctuate in the range of 125,000-133,000 VND/kg, which is considered a high price, creating opportunities for the industry to grow. However, the fact that world coffee prices sometimes move in opposite directions to domestic coffee prices poses risks for businesses in buying and selling, especially when prices are high.

According to data from the Customs Department, from the beginning of the year to April 15, Vietnam's total coffee export output reached 580,999 tons, with a turnover increase of nearly 47%, reaching 3.3 billion USD. With this result, coffee has surpassed seafood to become the agricultural product with the second largest export turnover, after wood and wood products.

Many experts believe that if the current price situation remains, the export value of this item for the whole year could set a record of around 8 billion USD.

Brazil enters season with output forecast to fall

Brazil's Robusta coffee harvest begins at the end of April, and Arabica around July.

According to the forecast, Brazil's coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year will decrease by 6.4% to 62.8 million bags, equivalent to 3.768 million tons.

Arabica is expected to have a crop failure with a 13.6% decrease in output to 38 million bags, equivalent to 2.28 million tons. In contrast, Brazil's Robusta is forecast to reach a record output with a possible increase of 7.3%, to 1.482 million tons, partly offsetting the decline in Arabica.

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NGUYEN TRI

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/gia-ca-phe-the-gioi-quay-dau-tang-xuat-khau-ca-phe-viet-nam-co-the-dat-den-8-ti-usd-20250501132605317.htm