What is the scenario for rice export prices from now until the end of 2023?

Entering the third quarter of 2023, the world rice trade situation continues to be complicated, with Vietnam's rice export prices increasing, reaching an 11-year peak.

Kịch bản nào cho giá gạo xuất khẩu từ nay đến hết năm 2023?

As of September 18, 2023, the export price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam reached an average of 615 USD/ton. (Source: VNA)

Speaking to the press, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) Tran Thanh Hai said that by the end of August 2023, Vietnam exported 5.81 million tons of rice, worth 3.16 billion USD, up 21.4% in volume and 35.7% in value over the same period. The average export price reached 543.9 USD/ton, up 11.8%.

The Philippines is still the leading consumer of Vietnamese rice, accounting for 40.3% of total rice exports; followed by the Chinese market, accounting for 13.5%; Indonesia is third, accounting for 12.4%. In addition, the EU market (Poland, the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, etc.) and Africa (Ghana, Angola, etc.) also recorded positive growth.

Mr. Tran Thanh Hai commented that, entering the third quarter of 2023, the world rice trade situation continues to be complicated ( geopolitical factors, El Nino phenomenon, rice export ban in some countries, ...) the demand for food reserves of countries increases, the export price of Vietnamese rice increases, at many times surpassing the price of Thai rice of the same type, setting a peak in the past 11 years.

As of September 18, 2023, the average price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam was 615 USD/ton, about 5 USD/ton higher than the price of the same type of rice from Thailand. For fragrant rice varieties, the average export price of Jasmine rice from Vietnam was recorded at 710 USD/ton.

Rice prices are currently showing a slowing trend following moves by some importing countries to curb inflation (such as the Philippines imposing a ceiling on domestic rice prices, although this policy was later lifted), focusing on policies to develop domestic production to increase reserves and inventories and finding alternative food sources for rice (corn, wheat).

However, in general, rice export prices from now until the end of the year will remain high due to the remaining demand for rice imports from major consuming markets (Philippines, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Africa), while rice supply from the world's leading rice exporting countries such as India and Pakistan is still limited.

Meanwhile, the Vietnam Food Association believes that the world market demand for Vietnamese rice will increase by at least 1 million tons in 2023, compared to the average of previous years. Therefore, the market situation from now until the end of the year is still very positive.

In fact, after a week of somewhat quiet trading with a downward trend, this week Vietnam's rice export price has improved. According to many businesses, the current price is quite stable and is considered a new price for this item.

Source