What is the scenario for the real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2023?

Commenting on the real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2023, Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan, Director of Batdonsgan.com.vn in the Southern region, emphasized that the time when the real estate market shows signs of reversal will take place around the fourth quarter of 2023 or later in the second quarter of 2024 depending on the conditions.

He said: " If the Government's policies to support the real estate market penetrate and quickly impact the market, the expected recovery will take place faster ."

Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council - also commented that from the fourth quarter of 2023, signs of recovery in the real estate market will appear more clearly.

“ Recently, legal policies related to real estate such as the Land Law, Housing Law, and Real Estate Business Law have been passed, helping to perfect the legal framework, bringing the real estate market into a new phase, ” said Mr. Luc.

By the end of 2023, the real estate market may recover clearly.

However, Mr. Luc also noted that the Government's policy of removing obstacles when introduced to the market will have a certain delay. It takes time for the policies to "absorb" into the market and take effect. And the end of 2023 is the right time for the policy to take effect.

In addition, the Vietnamese economy is also receiving many positive signals such as inflation, exchange rates and interest rates are all well controlled. These signals will have a positive impact on the real estate market.

Mr. Pham Anh Khoi, Chief Economist and Director of Dat Xanh Real Estate Services (FERI), said that in the context of many economic difficulties, high deposit interest rates have strongly attracted cash flow into savings channels. However, the end of 2023 will be a key time when a large amount of bank deposits mature. This will also be the time to decide whether cash flow will return to the real estate market or not.

If the real estate market situation remains difficult and investor confidence has not been restored, this source of money may continue to remain in the banking system, accepting lower interest rates.

In the second scenario, interest rates will drop to 6-7% by the end of this year, and money will flow back into the market. Many people will look for investment channels that bring higher returns than savings. In this context, if we look back at the past, the stock market usually grows first, followed by real estate.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Khanh - Vice President of Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association - stated: Currently, the market is no longer in a strong downward trend and may move sideways. Thanks to the State's credit policies and incentives from businesses, many people in need have begun to invest.

“ In the recent period, many investors were overwhelmed with goods and accepted to sell at a loss to recover capital. There were cases where they cut deep losses but still could not sell goods due to the sluggish real estate market. In fact, most of these people often use financial leverage to speculate, hoping that real estate prices will increase in the short term.

Therefore, this investor often has to bear great pressure on credit. In addition, there are investors who do not have much knowledge, do not thoroughly research the product, and do not understand the financial health of the investor, leading to a bad situation, " said Mr. Khanh.

However, according to Mr. Khanh, in the long term, real estate is still a good investment channel, so the market may recover in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, investors who want to "enter" the real estate market need to pay attention to 3 main characteristics: Legal assurance, high exploitation, and stable cash flow.

In general, experts' comments are that the fourth quarter of 2023 is the time when the real estate sector will begin a new cycle with a gradual recovery in some segments and key markets in large cities. However, at present, real estate businesses must continue to "take the pulse" of the market, make anti-crisis decisions, in order to maintain operations and wait for opportunities to come, such as: restructuring, streamlining the apparatus but still maintaining business capacity; maintaining the operating system in the condition of cost cutting; maintaining relationships with investors and sources of goods; developing new product segments to handle and balance cash flow...

Ngoc Vy

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