US spy planes less visible in Black Sea after incident; Washington intelligence says Ukraine conflict is at a dead end

Ukrainian army in eastern Luhansk province, Ukraine on June 23. (Source: AFP)

In an article in the Washington Post , journalist David Ignaces asserted that American politicians believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSF) are not adequately trained and do not have the necessary weapons to achieve significant success in the upcoming counterattack.

The article cited US documents leaked about two months ago and stated that US intelligence believes the conflict in Ukraine "is likely reaching a dead end".

The author said he spoke with several officials who were skeptical about the success of the VSU counterattack.

According to David Ignaces, US officials acknowledged that there were obstacles to Ukraine implementing the plan. They continued to agree with the February assessment that “lack of training and ammunition would likely slow progress and lead to more casualties,” while achieving modest results.

In another development, a Russian military website on April 16 assessed that US air reconnaissance activities had decreased in the Black Sea following the incident of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) off the coast of the Crimean peninsula.

US reconnaissance aircraft, including the $140 million RQ-4 Global Hawk strategic UAV, have reduced operations in the Black Sea following the incident with the MQ-9 Reaper UAV on March 14. The $30 million spy UAV crashed off the Crimean peninsula after a flyby by a Russian Su-27 fighter jet.

Prior to this incident, US reconnaissance aircraft conducted unhindered reconnaissance flights along the entire southern coast of the peninsula, allowing Washington to observe the entire Crimea all the way to Dzhankoy.

However, after the incident, the activity of spy planes has been significantly reduced. Now, American reconnaissance planes, including manned aircraft and UAVs, operate only along the 43rd parallel, which limits their access to the port city of Sevastopol.

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