Why does football always have problems with match-fixing?

The discovery of Sandro Tonali's involvement in gambling and match-fixing once again demonstrates how gambling threatens the integrity of matches.

In the third quarter of 2023, the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) reported that football and tennis accounted for more than half of the suspected match-fixing cases.

This aligns with suspicions from previous seasons. Last year, an unnamed Arsenal player was investigated for betting on yellow cards in the Premier League. This year, the British newspaper The Athletic revealed that two Europa Conference League matches were being monitored by UEFA for suspicious betting practices.

Recently, this British newspaper interviewed three experts in the field of sports betting and statistics to find out the reasons behind this situation. They all agreed that the inherent nature of football – a sport of surprises – makes it inherently linked to cheating.

Newcastle midfielder Tonali has been suspended for 10 months for gambling on football matches while he was at AC Milan. Photo: Reuters — Newcastle midfielder Tonali has been suspended for 10 months for gambling on football matches while he was at AC Milan. Photo: *Reuters*

Sergio Aguero's winning goal in the final minutes secured the 2012 Premier League title. Zinedine Zidane's crucial headbutt that led to a red card in the 2006 World Cup final. Manchester United's dramatic comeback in the 1999 Champions League final. None of these events were investigated. Goalkeepers aren't paid to concede goals, referees aren't bribed to issue cards. Meanwhile, match-fixing isn't that difficult. A defender deliberately leaving a little extra space for an opposing striker, or a goalkeeper being a split second slower in making a save... that's enough to change the course of the game.

Ben Paterson, Director of Data Quality Integrity at IMG Arena, explains: "Fans love unpredictable events."

According to this expert, the likelihood of high-stakes matches being fixed is low, because at this level, players are very well compensated. High income is an effective way to mitigate risk, while at lower levels, with fewer events, there are fewer opportunities for gamblers to bet huge sums of money.

"But when market demand peaks, the opportunity to make money from gambling remains incredibly attractive," Paterson explained.

In Brazil in March, 16 players were accused of match-fixing in 13 games, including eight in the top league, with many receiving lengthy bans. The top leagues in Italy and Spain also face match-fixing issues and have seen numerous scandals in the last decade. In 2005, Germany was also embroiled in a refereeing scandal.

Paterson said: "If one bookmaker's odds differ from the rest, we need to watch closely. We have a department that monitors match odds minute by minute, second by second."

Santos defender Eduardo Bauermann is among the Brazilian players accused of match-fixing. He is alleged to have received $10,000 to receive a yellow card in the match against Aval.

Another reason why football is inseparable from betting is that the owners of the teams themselves are involved in betting. Tony Bloom, the owner of Brighton, is a prime example, investing in betting on top-tier matches in England. To own Brighton, Bloom is subject to independent oversight and must file annual reports to ensure transparency.

Affy Sheikh, head of integrity services at Starlizard, a sports betting consultancy whose biggest client is Tony Bloom, told The Athletic : "Sports betting is a transnational, cross-border, organized operation. It's difficult for police to intervene because a transnational operation requires cooperation from police in different countries, and that's not always easy."

When it comes to international police cooperation, counter-terrorism operations and the hunt for dangerous criminals receive more attention than gambling-related issues.

According to Sheikh, gambling is a huge global money-making opportunity for criminal organizations. Football, being the world's most popular sport, has a vast scope of activity and generates large sums of money bet daily.

Currently, Asia is the center of match-fixing activity in countries where it is considered legal, such as the Philippines. However, the money also comes from elsewhere, particularly China, where betting laws are much stricter.

Some Premier League shirt sponsors also play a significant role in gambling activities. In fact, there are many such criminal gangs in Europe. According to Sheikh, players who are in debt are easily manipulated. "They have high incomes, but if they are terrorized by criminal gangs with threats of violence or kidnapping, the likelihood of them participating in gambling is very high."

According to Sheikh, an increasing number of criminal groups involved in betting and player bribing are adopting new methods, such as allowing bets on predicting the first-half outcome instead of the full match, perhaps because this makes bribing players easier.

This also applies to tennis. It's easier for a player to lose the first set and then fight hard for the rest of the match to win it, rather than losing the whole match.

According to Sheikh and Paterson, gambling has spread to many parts of the world partly because it facilitates money laundering. "It's becoming increasingly easier to conceal the flow of money from one or more large bets," Paterson said.

Chris Rasmussen is a lecturer on sports betting integrity at the University of New Haven. According to him, match-fixing is becoming easier to detect because sports data is so readily available. "However, organized crime groups are constantly expanding their match-fixing activities," he said. This expert argues that illegal betting is not limited to sports, but also includes other forms of crime such as human trafficking and drug trafficking.

"These activities complement each other, which also means that match-fixing in football can be directly linked to other illicit activities," he said. "Technology is constantly evolving, but criminals are also becoming more sophisticated."

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