At the end of the week, the market witnessed strong profit-taking pressure along with record net selling momentum from foreign investors. (Photo: Vietnam+)

The Vietnamese stock market had a positive trading week but also began to pose risks, when the VN-Index successfully surpassed the historical peak of 2022 and set new highs.

At the end of the week, the market witnessed strong profit-taking pressure along with a record net selling momentum from foreign investors. Accordingly, experts said that although the growth trend is still maintained, investors should still be cautious and consider restructuring their portfolios to cope with the possibility of short-term adjustments.

VN-Index surpasses peak with record liquidity

Last week, the VN-Index continuously conquered important resistance levels. Mr. Phan Tan Nhat, Head of Analysis Group of Saigon- Hanoi Securities Company (SHS), said that after a week of sudden strong increases, the index surpassed the historical peak of 2022. Accordingly, the market maintained a positive trading week with increased liquidity. Specifically, the VN-Index increased for 4 consecutive sessions, surpassing the psychological mark of 1,600 points and heading towards the price range of 1,660 points. Along with that, selling pressure appeared, causing the VN-Index to adjust to red at the end of the week.

The market closed with VN-Index up 2.84% to 1,630 points (above the psychological mark of 1,600 points) and VN30 up 3.13% to 1,783.25 points (after being under pressure to adjust in the last session of the week at the price range of 1,820 points).

Notably, market liquidity set a new record of VND259.5 trillion on the HoSE with an average trading volume of more than 1.75 billion shares per session. Foreign investors continued to sell strongly with VND8,217 billion here.

According to the analysis team of Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS), the average daily trading value also reached about 47,500 billion VND/session, an increase of about 5% compared to the previous week, thereby showing that domestic cash flow is still very strong.

Currently, the market breadth is still leaning towards positive with cash flow rotation in prominent sectors including insurance, securities, banking and oil and gas. On the contrary, technology, chemicals, textiles and seafood groups are under pressure to adjust and especially the real estate group was sold off heavily in the last session of the week.

Profit-taking pressure and adjustment risk

Technically, Phan Tan Nhat believes that the short-term trend of the VN-Index is still growing above the psychological support zone of 1,600 points with the next threshold at 1,565 points. However, the index is under selling pressure at the price range around 1,650 points. In particular, Mr. Nhat emphasized that the VN30 stock basket is under selling pressure at the price range of 1,800-1,830 points, corresponding to an increase of more than 60% from the bottom in April 2024.

"In history, there has never been a consecutive price increase with a strong increase of around 60% of the VN-Index and VN30 without a strong correction," Mr. Nhat emphasized.

Therefore, Mr. Nhat recommends that investors should be extremely cautious and closely monitor current market developments. Although the VN-Index is still growing, many stocks after a period of strong growth are at risk of reaching a peak and are likely to end the trend of sudden strong price increases.

VCBS's analysis team provides a more detailed look at the trading performance in the last session of the week. The market opened the morning up more than 18 points and surpassed the 1,660 mark thanks to strong demand from Vingroup , banking, steel and public investment stocks.

However, profit-taking pressure suddenly increased, especially in stocks that had recorded strong growth. This caused the general index to narrow its growth. After that, red dominated with 266 stocks decreasing and 68 stocks increasing, along with liquidity remaining at a high level compared to the 20-session average, showing short-term profit-taking in the high area of the market. By the end of the afternoon, the VN-Index recorded a decrease of nearly 18 points and retreated to 1,620 points before narrowing the decrease thanks to some large-cap stocks, such as MBB, VJC and BSR maintaining green.

Regarding fundamental analysis, VCBS's expert team pointed out that the "foreign room" at banks is a noteworthy point. Large banks with strong financial foundations and high stock liquidity continue to attract foreign capital when most of them have full room or are approaching the maximum level of 30%. On the contrary, many small-scale banks have almost no foreign shareholders, leaving quite a lot of room. Some banks lock foreign room at a low level compared to the maximum regulation (30%) in order to seek foreign strategic partners, opening up the potential to attract high-quality capital flows in the future.

In addition, VCBS also mentioned the North-South High-Speed Railway project, one of the key transport infrastructure projects with a total preliminary investment of about 67.34 billion USD (estimated to account for about 10% of GDP in 2027), a total route length of about 1,541 km passing through 20 provinces and cities. This project, despite its huge scale and many challenges in implementation mechanisms, is still expected to create strong growth momentum for the economy and many related industries in the long term, from construction materials to services and tourism, shaping the potential for sustainable growth for the stock market in the future.

Given the complex developments and warning signals, Mr. Phan Tan Nhat recommends that investors closely monitor market developments. For speculative positions and portfolio restructuring, it is necessary to carefully evaluate each stock code and consider selling weakened codes. In addition, investors should closely control short-term positions and rotate cash flows appropriately, even when the upward trend of the VN-Index is maintained.

VCBS's analysis team also shares the same view on risk management, especially in the context of increasing short-term profit-taking pressure. VCBS recommends that although the market had an impressive week of gains, the appearance of strong selling pressure in the last session of the week shows the need to adjust investment strategies, avoid "buying at the top" of stocks that have increased rapidly and prioritize preserving profits./.

According to vietnamplus.vn

Source: https://huengaynay.vn/kinh-te/vn-index-dung-truoc-ap-luc-dieu-chinh-sau-khi-vuot-qua-muc-dinh-lich-su-156778.html