The CPI forecast for November 2024 is a 0.15% increase.

World market

In the commodities market, prices of energy and raw materials decreased slightly compared to the previous month. This creates favorable conditions for stabilizing global inflation and provides an important basis for many economies to implement loose fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery and development.

Recently, the IMF noted that the global economy appears to have nearly overcome inflation and is nearing national targets, although price pressures remain in some countries.

The IMF predicts that global inflation will slow to 5.8% in 2024. This rate is lower than the 5.9% forecast in July. By the end of 2025, inflation will be at 3.5%.

However, risks remain, such as rising commodity prices due to conflicts in the Middle East and the increasing protectionism in many countries. In addition, inflation in the services sector continues to accelerate, almost doubling compared to before the Covid-19 pandemic.

The organization forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% this year, the same as the figure given in July. US growth is projected to rise to 2.8%, up from 2.6% previously. Conversely, GDP in the Eurozone may only increase by 0.8%, down 0.1% from the forecast three months ago.

For emerging economies, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for China from 5% to 4.8%, despite a series of recently implemented stimulus policies. Conversely, India is expected to grow by 7%.

+ Fuel group

Overwhelming selling pressure in the market caused oil prices to continue falling. Concerns about the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East have eased, and the prospect of weakening oil demand is the main reason for the downward pressure on oil prices.

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels since mid-September 2024. WTI crude oil is now just over $67 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has dropped to around $71 per barrel.

According to Citigroup's forecast, Brent crude oil prices will only fluctuate between $60 and $65 per barrel in 2025 due to uncertainty about the global economic outlook.

However, oil prices remain supported by escalating military tensions in the Middle East and the possibility that OPEC+ may delay the planned oil production increase scheduled for December 1st.

+ Metal group

Iron ore prices are benefiting from strong short-term demand as China releases positive economic data, bolstering consumption prospects.

Conversely, the price of precious metal gold bullion, considered a hedge against political and economic instability, at one point nearly reached $2,800/oz, up more than 36% from last year.

Gold prices have broken several record highs as tensions surrounding the US presidential election, escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and expectations of another Fed interest rate cut have created the perfect storm for gold. Therefore, gold prices are forecast to remain high in the near future.

+ Agricultural products group

In the agricultural commodity market, prices for most types of products are falling due to the prospect of abundant supply coupled with a slowdown in export activity.

According to new data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, net corn exports for both old and new crop totaled nearly 4.2 million tons in the week ending October 17, exceeding forecasts and marking the highest export volume since May 2021. Meanwhile, net soybean exports for both old and new crop reached an eight-week high of over 2.1 million tons.

Notably, competitive pressure from Russian wheat supplies continues to weigh on the market.

Analysts believe prices remain under control partly due to ample global supply and uncertainty about future trade relations between the US and key markets following the US presidential election.

For rice, export prices in Asian markets have fallen sharply, the biggest drop in over 15 months, as India lifted its rice export tax.

Domestic market

Despite the uneven recovery and inherent risks and uncertainties in the global economy, the domestic socio-economic situation continues to maintain a positive trend, creating momentum for growth in the final months of the year.

Accordingly, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Vietnam's manufacturing sector in October 2024 is estimated to have risen above 51 points, a significant increase compared to 47.3 points in September. Consumer goods and services prices remained stable at low levels, the supply of goods was abundant, and purchasing power continued its recovery, albeit at a slow pace .

Notably, the consumer price index (CPI) is under control, and there is still considerable room to control inflation in 2024 according to the National Assembly's target. The average CPI for the whole year is projected not to exceed 4% due to several factors that reduce pressure on the price level, such as:

- The cooling of global inflation helps Vietnam reduce pressure from imported inflation, while also improving psychological factors and expectations, supporting inflation control.

- Several tax support policies continue to be implemented, such as reducing environmental taxes on gasoline and diesel, and reducing value-added tax, contributing to lowering the costs of goods and services...

- The supply of food remains quite abundant.

- One major contributing factor is that demand remains quite weak, with consumers still hesitant to spend.

Conversely, several factors remain that will put pressure on price levels in the remaining months of 2024, such as:

- Electricity prices, education service prices, and medical examination and treatment service prices may be adjusted upwards according to a planned schedule.

- Steel and cement prices have increased due to rising input material costs.

- Prices of essential raw materials, goods, and consumer services may increase slightly during the year-end holiday season.

Based on a comprehensive analysis of relevant factors, the Center for Industry and Trade Information forecasts that the CPI in November 2024 may increase by approximately 0.1 – 0.15% compared to the previous month.

Source: https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/thi-truong-trong-nuoc/du-bao-cpi-thang-11-2024-tang-0-15-.html