The Fed is likely to cut interest rates as early as September 2024.

Economists expect the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index to be unchanged in May 2024 and the core index excluding food and energy to increase at least 0.1%, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Headquarters of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in Washington, DC, USA.

The report, due Friday (June 28), is likely to show a 2.6% annual increase in consumer prices in both the headline and core measures. The expected increase in the core measure, which paints a better picture of underlying inflation, would still be the lowest since March 2021.

Since their last meeting, Fed officials have said that while they are encouraged by other inflation data easing — including consumer prices — they need to see several months of such progress before cutting rates. At the same time, the labor market — another part of the Fed’s dual mandate — remains strong, albeit at a slower pace. A “healthy” jobs market gives policymakers flexibility in when to cut rates.

The latest inflation figures, which will be accompanied by personal spending figures, will show spending on services, after recent retail sales data showed weaker demand for goods. Experts are calling for a modest increase in nominal personal consumption as well as incomes.

Economists do not believe that the slow pace of inflation will be enough to convince officials that by the time of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July 2024, inflation is on track to fall to the Fed's 2% target.

Other data due next week will include consumer confidence for June 2024 and reports on new and existing home closings for May 2024.

In addition to the first-quarter economic growth forecast, the US government will release durable goods orders data for May 2024.

nhandan.vn

Source: https://baolaocai.vn/fed-co-kha-nang-ha-lai-suat-som-nhat-la-vao-thang-92024-post385753.html