Robusta coffee prices are forecast to end 2025 at $4,200 a tonne, down 28% from Wednesday's close, due to improved supplies from top producers Brazil and Vietnam, a Reuters poll showed.
Coffee price today 2/15/2025
World coffee prices fluctuated due to strong profit-taking activities. Robusta coffee prices continued to decline since mid-week, while Arabica prices plunged after many consecutive strong increases.
Domestic coffee prices today, February 15, range from 130,000 - 131,500 VND/kg. It is currently the dry season in Vietnam, the 5th month of the coffee crop from October 2024 to September 2025. In the dry season of 2025, some areas in the Central Highlands are forecasted to experience local water shortages due to lack of rainfall and low flow. Therefore, proactive water sources for production are of interest to many farmers.
Major coffee growing regions in Vietnam’s Central Highlands are experiencing seasonal dry weather, and the rainy season is expected to begin in April to promote flowering for the next coffee crop, harvested in the October 2025-September 2026 crop year.
Commenting on the market developments, traders said there was some strong profit-taking in the final trading session of the week after a prolonged rally in the market. Near-term Arabica coffee futures retreated from all-time highs on liquidation pressure after a month-long rally. However, there was also some buying from roasters as the market hit session lows.
Concerns about global coffee supplies have helped push prices to all-time highs. Brazil’s coffee exports in January fell 1.6% year-on-year to 3.98 million bags, according to a report from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe).
Weather forecasts for Brazil indicate favorable weather conditions in key arabica coffee growing regions next week, ahead of the seasonally dry winter months. This will be closely watched as Brazil’s 2025-26 coffee crop continues to develop ahead of harvest.
In January 2025, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 154,635 tons, worth 799.48 million USD, down 33% in volume but up 28% in value compared to January 2024. Thanks to high export prices, the average price in January 2025 was 5,181 USD/ton, much higher than the average of 4,178 USD/ton in 2024. However, the price in January 2025 was still lower than the record price set in November 2024, when it soared to 5,855 USD/ton.
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| Domestic coffee prices on February 15 dropped sharply by 1,300 - 1,500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: aivivu) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on February 14, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London for delivery in March 2025 decreased by 59 USD, trading at 5,735 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 decreased by 62 USD, trading at 5,726 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange, delivery term March 2025, turned down sharply by 19.15 cents, trading at 419.75 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term May 2025 decreased by 17.70 cents, trading at 407.40 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on February 15 dropped sharply by 1,300 - 1,500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Robusta coffee prices are forecast to end 2025 at $4,200 a tonne, down 28% from Wednesday’s close, as supplies improve from top producers Brazil and Vietnam, a Reuters poll of 12 leading market and trade analysts showed. Arabica coffee prices are also forecast to fall about 30% by the end of the year as very high prices dampen demand.
Brazil's global coffee supply in 2024-25 is forecast to reach around 66.4 million bags.
The survey also found that in the next crop year from July 2025 to June 2026, the lower year in Brazil’s biennial coffee cycle, output is expected to fall 2.7% to 64.6 million bags, with a slight increase in robusta (conillon) output partly offsetting the decline in arabica.
Brazil’s robusta output is forecast to rise to 24.5 million bags in 2025-26, up from 21 million bags in the previous season. Arabica output is forecast to fall to 40.55 million bags from 43.4 million bags in the previous season. However, some participants pointed to the possibility of a larger output in the following season, 2026-27.
The survey also forecasts Vietnam's coffee output in the October 2025-September 2026 crop year to reach 29 million bags, up 3.57% from the current 2024-2025 crop year, of which output is estimated at 28 million bags.
A global coffee shortage has pushed prices to record highs, putting pressure on some traders and commodity traders who risk being hit if farmers fail to deliver their contracted quantities and are also exposed to financial risk from higher coffee futures prices.
Nestlé said it would have to raise coffee prices more than initially expected this year, although it pledged to only pass on some of the higher input costs to consumers.
In a notice to customers, mid-market coffee trader Central do Cafe in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, said it would temporarily suspend operations starting this week to seek to renegotiate its debts.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1522025-gia-ca-phe-ha-nhiet-arabica-roi-tu-muc-cao-nhat-du-bao-thi-truong-cuoi-nam-2025-the-nao-304346.html
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