Gold price enters "new upward trajectory", still shocking increase before economic recession and real estate disaster?

Gold price today December 4, 2023, the world continues to soar to an all-time high, when information about the Fed preparing to cut interest rates seems more certain, buying momentum increases sharply, investors are frantically preparing shelters for an economic recession and real estate disaster is coming very soon.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 12/4 AND EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 12/4

1. PNJ - Updated: December 4, 2023 00:30 - Website supply time - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell
HCMC - PNJ	61,600	62,800
HCMC - SJC	72,700	73,900
Hanoi - PNJ	61,600	62,800
Hanoi - SJC	72,700	73,900
Da Nang - PNJ	61,600	62,800
Da Nang - SJC	72,700	73,900
Western Region - PNJ	61,600	62,800
Western Region - SJC	72,700	74,000
Jewelry gold price - PNJ rings (24K)	61,600	62,750
Jewelry Gold Price - 24K Jewelry	61,500	62,300
Jewelry Gold Price - 18K Jewelry	45,480	46,880
Jewelry Gold Price - 14K Jewelry	35,200	36,600
Jewelry Gold Price - 10K Jewelry	24,670	26,070

Domestic gold prices followed the world gold price to increase "dizzily", SJC gold bar prices still fluctuated within a large range, but still firmly held at a new high. The price of 9999 gold rings and jewelry gold prices also started a new price range.

Currently, SJC gold is traded at around 74 million VND/tael while gold rings and jewelry are up to 62.65 million VND/tael.

Summary of SJC gold bar prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of last week (December 1):

Saigon Jewelry Company listed the price of SJC gold at 72.30 - 73.52 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists the price of SJC gold at: 72.30 - 73.50 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Group listed at: 72.40 - 73.60 million VND/tael.

PNJ Group listed at: 72.40 - 73.50 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 72.42 - 73.48 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 61.78 - 62.88 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 61.40 - 62.60 million VND/tael.

The world gold price closed last week's trading session at a record peak of 2,071.00 USD/ounce, up sharply by 35.3 USD/ounce compared to the previous trading session, on the Kitco floor. The previous record for gold futures was 2,089.2 USD - recorded in August 2020.

Thus, in just about 2 months, the world gold price increased sharply by about 200 USD/ounce (equivalent to nearly 6 million VND/tael) and then surpassed the historical peak.

A record monthly close in November was apparently not enough for gold investors, and solid momentum has pushed the precious metal to an all-time high. Gold jumped on Friday afternoon after holding above $2,000 an ounce all week. The precious metal also posted its first monthly close above $2,000, buoyed by upbeat inflation data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve members, bolstering growing confidence that a long-awaited major rate hike could be coming soon.

Giá vàng hôm nay 6/3. (Nguồn: goldprice.org)

Gold price today December 4, 2023: Gold price at all-time high, what to prepare for economic recession and real estate disaster? (Source: goldprice.org)

Currently, in addition to technical factors continuing to support the upward momentum of gold prices, the precious metal is also witnessing new buying momentum as the market continues to "bet" on the Fed cutting interest rates in early March 2024.

This could be the start of a bigger move for gold, with prices entering a new trajectory, with “bright days ahead,” predicts Zaye Capital Markets chief investment officer Naeem Aslam .

Of course, the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy remains the primary risk factor for gold prices. However, the market is widely convinced that a slowing economy means policymakers’ next move will be a rate cut, it’s just a matter of when.

How long will the gold price continue to increase?

The metal market still has many positive supporting factors, gold prices are predicted to not stop their shocking increase here.

The latest Kitco News weekly gold survey shows that retail investors maintain an optimistic outlook for the week ahead, while the majority of market analysts are also bullish on the yellow metal’s near-term prospects.

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, said that the rate cut is imminent and the impact of the US dollar on gold prices is strong, so its retreat will support the upward momentum.

According to expert Adam Button's analysis, technically, when the gold price has surpassed the $2,100 range, the "upward path" will be wider.

He said seasonal factors this month are also driving gold higher. “Today is December 1, which is a buy day. December, January, February, that’s the strongest seasonal period in terms of performance,” he said.

Some analysts say gold is overextended and due for a pullback, but when everyone thinks it needs to pull back, I think it could explode. It’s the FOMO effect – the anxious feeling that everyone around you is having a happier, more fun, more exciting experience than you… and then people decide to go for a real breakout.”

Expert Button therefore believes that gold prices are likely to rise this week, after it paused on the last day of last week and approached the all-time high.

Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management , continues to maintain a neutral stance on gold, expecting prices to remain relatively unchanged this week. He believes that gold needs to digest the big rally in early October and especially early November.

“Gold is vulnerable to negative developments in the near term here. But there is a good chance that gold will make a strong move next year and beyond as central banks end their tightening cycles even as economies are in recession,” said Adrian Day.

Meanwhile, David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research , predicts that as 2023 comes to a close, economic signals point to a volatile 2024. A recession is forecast, but it’s not the end of the world. It’s part of the business cycle and next year will be a hard landing. So investors should be wary of optimistic financial news.

Rosenberg also warned that the real estate sector should be wary, predicting a serious cycle of delinquencies and defaults. “We’re going to have a serious cycle of delinquencies and defaults… a lot of asset conversions, but there’s going to be a very significant real estate deflation.”

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