Vietnam's Economy 2025: A Series of Positive Forecasts from International Organizations

Experts and international organizations assess that Vietnam is maintaining impressive growth momentum and forecasts that it can achieve its 2025 target. However, tariff risks, inflationary pressures and exchange rate fluctuations will continue to be factors that need to be closely monitored in the final months of the year.

Strong growth forecast

Vietnam's economy is entering 2025 with many promising signs, attracting special attention from international organizations and foreign experts. A series of prestigious organizations such as WB, ADB, UOB have all given optimistic forecasts about Vietnam's economic growth this year. In the context of the global economy still having many fluctuations, positive assessments of Vietnam's growth prospects are considered a "confidence boost", opening up expectations for a new development cycle.

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According to the World Bank’s (WB) latest Vietnam Economic Update, Vietnam’s economy is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2025, thanks to a 7.5% growth in the first half of the year. The WB said that growth is forecast to slow to 6.1% in 2026, before recovering to 6.5% in 2027 thanks to an upturn in global trade and Vietnam’s continued advantage as a competitive manufacturing destination.

To support growth and minimize external risks, the WB recommends that Vietnam needs to boost public investment, control risks in the financial system, and promote structural reforms.

Ms. Mariam J. Sherman, World Bank Country Director for Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, commented: With a low public debt ratio, Vietnam has abundant fiscal space. If implemented effectively, public investment will both address infrastructure shortcomings and create more jobs. At the same time, it is necessary to promote reforms to strengthen essential services, build a green economy, develop human capital and diversify trade - these are the key factors to help Vietnam minimize global risks and maintain long-term growth.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also just raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth in 2025 from 6.6% to 6.7% thanks to a positive outlook as Vietnam promotes structural reforms and sustainable infrastructure investment.

ADB said that the surge in exports before the US imposed new tariffs, along with the Government 's support policies, helped Vietnam's economic growth accelerate in the first half of 2025. However, this rate slowed down in the remaining months due to the reciprocal tax measures that took effect from 2025. However, ADB still believes that Vietnam's economy will maintain relative stability, although it will not be able to maintain the strong growth rate of the first half of the year.

Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, assessed that the reforms on governance, transparency and tariffs in Resolution 68 are on the right track. The private sector will play a key role in both creating jobs and increasing added value for the economy.

Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam

Challenges still lie ahead

At the same time, Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty noted that Vietnam is among the six countries most vulnerable to climate change, especially in the Mekong Delta. “Strong investment in renewable energy, battery storage and electricity transmission is urgently needed,” he suggested.

ADB experts said that one of the focuses that needs to be promoted is infrastructure to create a spillover effect, help increase public investment, improve FDI capital flows and enhance market confidence. "The emergence of new technology industries such as semiconductors, AI and the digital economy requires a highly skilled workforce. The government has announced many programs to improve skills, which must go hand in hand with reforms to create sustainable growth momentum," said Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty.

ADB believes that Vietnam’s economic outlook for 2025–2026 remains positive, but risks from global instability cannot be overlooked. If major partner economies grow more slowly than expected or international financial volatility increases, Vietnam will be strongly impacted. According to ADB, in addition to hard infrastructure, “soft infrastructure” such as education and health care also need to be focused on to create resources for the future.

The Global Economics and Market Research Department of UOB Bank (Singapore) has recently raised its growth forecast for Vietnam this year. UOB assessed that Vietnam's economic growth results in 2025 have so far exceeded expectations, despite risks from US tax policies. With a growth rate of 7.85% in the first three quarters of the year, the outlook for the whole year remains positive.

However, the final quarter of the year is expected to be challenging amid trade tensions and tariffs. As a result, UOB maintained its Q4/2025 growth forecast at 7.2%, while revising up its full-year growth forecast to 7.7% from 7.5%. However, UOB believes that to achieve the official growth target of 8.3–8.5%, Q4/2025 will need to achieve very high growth of 9.7–10.5%.

Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Head of Global Economics and Market Research at UOB, commented: Currently, Vietnam is one of the fastest growing economies in ASEAN with a forecast of more than 7%, surpassing Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.6 - 5.3%), Singapore (3.52%) and Thailand (2 - 3%). The manufacturing industry is the differentiator and the main driving force, bringing higher added value compared to resource-based industries such as agriculture or mining, thereby consolidating Vietnam's strong position in the region.

UOB experts noted that Vietnam is currently a highly open economy, with exports of goods and services accounting for 83% of GDP, second only to Singapore in ASEAN. Therefore, any changes in US trade policy could have a strong impact.

According to the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), Vietnam's real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 8.23% over the same period last year. This is the highest increase since the third quarter of 2022, when the economy recovered strongly after the COVID-19 pandemic with an increase of 14.4%. In the first three quarters of 2025, Vietnam's GDP increased by 7.85% over the same period, consolidating its position as one of the fastest growing economies in Southeast Asia.

According to Tran Ngoc/VOV.VN

Source: https://baovinhlong.com.vn/kinh-te/202512/kinh-te-viet-nam-2025-loat-du-bao-tich-cuc-tu-cac-to-chuc-quoc-te-5f710c1/