Low birth rate - risk of future labor shortage

The Ministry of Health has proposed providing financial support to women who have a second child, in order to increase the birth rate. Photo: Thuy Linh

There is a trend in Vietnam today for young men and women to marry late. Even accept to live single. There are no official statistics but this trend is concentrated in many big cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

The birth control campaign that began nearly half a century ago has paid off. But so far, figures from the Ministry of Health show that: “The national birth rate is trending below replacement level, even reaching an all-time low, and is forecast to continue to decline in the coming years.”

At the International Workshop on Policy Consultation and Solutions to Prevent Low Fertility Trends organized by the Department of Population, Ministry of Health on August 28, Mr. Le Thanh Dung - Director of the Department of Population (Ministry of Health) - said that, besides the advantages and opportunities that the achievements in reducing fertility in recent times have brought, Vietnam is facing new challenges. That is, maintaining a stable replacement fertility rate nationwide is not really sustainable, the fertility rate varies significantly between regions and subjects, and the trend of low fertility appears.

According to the Ministry of Health, the national fertility rate is trending down below the replacement level, the total fertility rate in 2023 is 1.96 children/woman, the lowest decrease ever and is forecast to continue to decrease in the following years.

The trend of low and very low birth rates is concentrated in some urban areas with developed socio-economic conditions.

If by socio-economic region, our country currently has 2/6 regions, the Southeast and the Mekong Delta, with a low birth rate below the replacement level, in which the Southeast has an average number of children of 1.47 children.

According to provinces and cities, 21/63 provinces and cities have low birth rates, accounting for about 39.37% of the country's population. Most of them are provinces located in the key economic region of the South, with high urbanization and rapid economic growth.

“If the birth rate is low and prolonged, it will directly and deeply affect the population size and structure and leave many consequences such as labor shortage, rapid population aging and population decline... greatly affecting the sustainable development of the country,” said a representative of the Ministry of Health.

Another number worth thinking about: The average age of first marriage in our country is changing towards later marriage. In 1999, the average age of first marriage was 24.1 years old; by 2019, it had increased to 25.2 years old. After 4 years, by 2023, the age of first marriage continued to increase by 2 years and is currently 27.2 years old. For men, the average age of first marriage is 29.3 and for women it is 25.1.

Vietnam has not yet reached the level of encouraging births but has only set the task of maintaining a stable replacement level of births nationwide.

Marriage and childbirth are no longer just family matters but have become national issues with the risk of population aging and a decrease in the proportion of people of working age in the future. This is an issue that will have a profound and long-term impact on socio-economic development.

The Ministry of Health has proposed a one-time cash support when women give birth to a second child, along with a proposal to exempt or reduce tuition fees, and support study costs for preschool and primary school children... in areas with low birth rates. However, more specific policies are needed to ensure a labor force to serve the country in the future.

Source: https://laodong.vn/suc-khoe/muc-sinh-thap-nguy-co-giam-sut-nguon-lao-dong-trong-tuong-lai-1386172.ldo