Standard Chartered raises Vietnam's 2025 GDP forecast to 7.5%

Standard Chartered Bank has sharply raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7.5%, significantly higher than the previous forecast of 6.1%. The growth forecast for 2026 has also been adjusted up from 6.2% to 7.2%.

Packing clam products for export of Thanh Hoa Seafood Import-Export Joint Stock Company, Thanh Hoa province. Photo: Le Dong/VNA

These are notable information in the latest macroeconomic report of Standard Chartered Bank just released.

According to Standard Chartered, Vietnam continues to strengthen its position in the global supply chain, driven by strong trade activity and deeper integration into global trade through numerous free trade agreements (FTAs). Total export turnover reached US$42.7 billion in September 2025, up 24.7% year-on-year, thanks to strong growth in key sectors such as electronics and computers (+66.2%), telephones (+17.5%) and machinery (+11.6%).

On the other hand, imports also increased by 24.9% to 39.8 billion USD, mainly in the group of electronic and computer components (+43.6%) and machinery (+33.6%), reflecting the continuous expansion of industrial production and investment.

Vietnam’s external balance remains solid, supported by strong trade flows and a stable exchange rate outlook, the report said. After a period of decline in foreign exchange (FX) reserves due to a stronger US dollar, Vietnam’s FX reserves are likely to recover, reflecting a more stable macroeconomy and positive trade activity.

Domestic credit growth is recovering strongly, suggesting that the economy is continuing to recover even without a reduction in policy rates. Credit growth is now above 15% year-on-year, reflecting improved business confidence and increased financial demand. Lending remains robust, supported by ample liquidity conditions and government measures to stimulate growth.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows continue to be the main growth driver. Disbursed FDI increased by 8.5% (to US$18.8 billion) year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while committed FDI increased by 15.2% (to US$28.5 billion) year-on-year.

Economists at Standard Chartered Bank forecast the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5% for the remainder of 2025 and 2026, thereby facilitating investment and production expansion.

Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank, commented that Vietnam's resilience and adaptability are demonstrated by its successful attraction of strong FDI inflows, stable export growth and strengthening of Vietnam's strategic role in diversifying global supply chains - factors that show strong prospects for continued economic growth.

Along with the growth forecast, Standard Chartered also maintained its forecast for the USD/VND exchange rate at 26,300 in 2025 and 26,750 in 2026. Regarding inflation, the bank adjusted its inflation forecast to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, reflecting the strong recovery of the Vietnamese economy while price pressures are gradually easing.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/standard-chartered-nang-du-bao-gdp-nam-2025-cua-viet-nam-len-75-20251030094703945.htm