Improving the capacity to forecast and warn of natural disasters

The situation of natural disasters in the whole country is quite unusual and extreme. This reality requires better work, forecasting and warning must be early, from a distance, timely, and accurate, especially for some types of extreme natural disasters that occur in a narrow range such as forecasting extreme heavy rains, exceptionally large floods, exceeding history...

Chairman of the People's Committee of Quang Tri province Tran Phong and the provincial delegation visited, presented gifts and encouraged the Ruc ethnic people in Kim Phu commune to overcome difficulties caused by floods. Photo: VNA

In the era of data and artificial intelligence, technology must become the key tool to help Vietnam be more proactive in dealing with natural disasters. Improving forecasting and early warning capacity is not only a requirement, but also a practical imperative.

Disaster Response Platform

At recent meetings to assess the situation and deploy urgent measures to overcome the consequences of storm No. 11 and floods, as well as urgent meetings to respond to and overcome the consequences of widespread floods in the Central region..., Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh praised the efforts of ministries, branches and localities, including forecasting work.

To continue responding to natural disasters in the coming time, the Prime Minister assigned the Minister of Agriculture and Environment to direct the hydrometeorological forecasting agency to closely monitor, coordinate, and consult international forecast information to forecast and provide the most complete, earliest, and accurate information on the developments and impacts of storms and the risk of floods and rains... for timely, effective, and focused prevention.

Member of the National Civil Defense Steering Committee, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Nguyen Hoang Hiep assessed: Forecasting and warning have been effective, becoming the foundation for timely direction and management from the central to local levels, contributing to minimizing natural disaster risks. In natural disaster prevention and control, forecasting and warning play a very important role. Therefore, forecasting and warning information must be early, from a distance, timely and accurate.

Director of the Department of Dyke Management and Natural Disaster Prevention and Control Pham Duc Luan said that natural disaster forecasting in general as well as storm forecasting has achieved many results, approaching the advanced countries in the region and the world , helping natural disaster prevention and control work to be proactive early and from afar, thereby improving the effectiveness of direction, proactive response and reducing damage.

However, according to Dr. Hoang Duc Cuong, Deputy Director of the Department of Hydrometeorology, forecasting and warning of hydrometeorology in general and forecasting and early warning especially for dangerous natural disasters such as storms, tropical depressions, flash floods, landslides, etc. still face many difficulties due to the limited forecasting skills of forecasting models in Vietnam. Along with that are difficulties in updating information and data on socio-economic activities at sea and on land, where there is a possibility of being affected by storms and tropical depressions, so that the appropriate level of natural disaster risk can be determined in storm and tropical depression bulletins.

Regarding early warning of flash floods and landslides, currently, warning of flash floods and landslides in detail to each residential area and village is also a difficult problem. Currently, the world cannot predict flash floods and landslides that will occur at a specific location and at a specific time.

Vietnam has adopted the Southeast Asia Flash Flood Warning Support System (SEAFFGS). However, this system cannot yet support forecasting the specific locations of flash floods and landslides.

Assessing the difficulties in hydrometeorological forecasting, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Nguyen Hoang Hiep also said that the forecasting and early, detailed warning for some types of extreme natural disasters occurring in a narrow range such as forecasting extreme heavy rains, exceptionally large floods, exceeding history are still limited, and it is not possible to forecast early the values ​​exceeding history during the flood season.

Increase the quantity and quality of meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic monitoring stations

According to Director of the Department of Hydrometeorology Nguyen Thuong Hien, implementing Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW dated December 22, 2024 on breakthroughs in science and technology development, innovation and national digital transformation, the industry has deployed many solutions to improve the capacity to forecast and warn of natural disasters such as: Increasing the quantity and quality of meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic monitoring stations, especially in key areas, at sea and areas at high risk of natural disasters in the direction of modernization and automation; enhancing modern monitoring solutions such as weather radar, marine radar, satellite cloud imaging applications, etc.

The industry develops modern forecasting and warning technologies that are close to those of developed countries in hydrometeorology, such as high-resolution digital models for storm forecasting, rain and flood forecasting, flash flood and landslide warnings. Integrate the impacts of climate change on natural disaster developments into hydrometeorological forecasting plans, and continue to research and apply artificial intelligence (AI) in forecasting and warning of natural disasters, first of all for storm forecasting, rain and dangerous weather phenomena that rarely occur according to normal rules. In addition, it is necessary to promote international cooperation in information and data exchange, especially for storms at sea; receive and develop advanced and modern forecasting technologies and processes of countries through bilateral and multilateral cooperation.

The sector continues to coordinate with localities and units under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to speed up the implementation of the Project "Early warning of landslides, mudslides, flash floods in the midland and mountainous areas of Vietnam" and the Program to update disaster risk zoning, create disaster warning maps, especially disasters related to storms, storm surges, floods, flash floods, landslides, droughts, saltwater intrusion...

In the long term, the sector continues to implement the National Hydrometeorological Station Network Planning for the period 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050, which was issued by the Prime Minister on April 8, 2024. Along with that, the sector continues to implement Decision No. 372/QD-BTNMT dated February 16, 2024 of the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment (now the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) promulgating the Plan to implement Decision No. 1261/QD-TTg dated October 27, 2023 of the Prime Minister approving the Project "Modernization of the Hydrometeorological Sector to 2025 and the period 2026-2030"...

Regarding the situation of storm No. 13 and floods, Mr. Nguyen Thuong Hien requested the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting and regional Hydro-Meteorological Stations to increase the frequency of updating bulletins, especially during peak periods. Bulletins need to be concise, clear, and easy to understand so that people and local authorities can grasp and take timely action.

Relevant units in the industry must concentrate maximum human resources, closely monitor weather developments in the coming days, especially heavy rains, risks of flash floods, landslides, and floods in the Central region to promptly warn localities and people to proactively respond. In case of shortage of staff, regional Hydrometeorological Stations must immediately notify the Department to mobilize additional staff, ensuring no interruption in data collection.

Regarding strengthening coordination with owners of hydroelectric and irrigation reservoirs, hydrometeorological stations need to have direct contact with each reservoir owner to update the operation status, water level and flood discharge. This must be done quickly to avoid slow information that makes management lose initiative.

Director Nguyen Thuong Hien suggested that floods on rivers in the Central region are currently at high levels, widespread flooding is occurring in many localities. Therefore, it is recommended that ministries and provincial People's Committees direct specialized agencies to direct reservoir management and operation units to closely monitor the hydrometeorological situation, implement monitoring and forecasting regimes, provide information, data and reporting regimes according to regulations to the Department of Hydrometeorology to serve forecasting and warning work.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/xa-hoi/nang-nang-luc-du-bao-va-canh-bao-som-thien-tai-20251105170302582.htm