China's series of rescue policies
To ease the difficulties of the real estate market, China has just implemented a series of relief measures such as lowering lending rates for mortgages, loosening regulations on buying second homes, buying back excess apartment supply...
The real estate and construction industry accounts for more than 25% of China's GDP but has been under unprecedented pressure since 2020 as the country has taken proactive measures to clean up the market. Several large real estate companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden have gone bankrupt; many related businesses are struggling... Housing demand is gloomy, house prices continue to fall, at the fastest rate in more than 9 years last August.
Along with real estate rescue policies, China has also launched many solutions to stimulate the financial market. This takes place in the context of the world's second largest economy not having a clear recovery in growth due to the prolonged real estate crisis, domestic consumption remains gloomy and trade conflicts with the West are increasingly fierce.
Dr. Dinh The Hien - Director of the Institute of Informatics and Applied Economics - said that since 2020, China has used many measures to "cool down" the real estate market. However, because of eliminating investment motivation, the market has cooled down and deteriorated abnormally.
Meanwhile, to stabilize the real estate market, the strength of the Chinese economy is not commensurate. Especially in the period of 2020-2023, the global economy is facing common difficulties, leading to recession. The Chinese economy is heavily affected due to difficulties in the export market.
Therefore, at this stage, without new stimulus policies, the Chinese economy will continue to face difficulties. Mr. Hien believes that a lesson learned is that excessive restraint will damage the real estate market, affecting the economy as a whole. Intervention in the market is necessary, but excessive intervention in administrative will will cause damage and negatively affect the economy.
Returning to Vietnam, Mr. Hien assessed that real estate is an industry that plays a particularly important role in the economy. Experts predict that in the period of 2025-2026, the market may see investment waves. These are people who have the ability to perceive and analyze the market in advance, and have knowledge. Mr. Hien believes that this is positive, helping the market to mature, contributing to stimulating people's confidence.
Mr. Le Hoang Chau - Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) - once emphasized that the real estate market is considered a barometer of the economy, because it directly or indirectly affects most industries. Once the real estate market encounters difficulties, it will affect 40 other industries, dragging down economic growth.
China's experience is a lesson to see that policies are needed to promote the development of the real estate market, creating growth momentum for the entire economy.
Vietnam's real estate market needs a "stimulant"
Speaking at a recent event, economist Can Van Luc acknowledged that Vietnam's real estate market is showing signs of recovery. Support to promote comes from the macro economy, interest rates remain low; exchange rates gradually soften; budget deficit, public debt, foreign debt, government debt repayment obligations... are all within acceptable limits.
In addition, legal problems have been gradually resolved; many laws related to real estate have been passed and come into effect; many decrees and policies have been issued. Planning at all levels is being completed; public investment and infrastructure development are being promoted; financial obligations have passed the most difficult period and access to capital is maintained.
Vietnam's real estate market is showing signs of recovery (Illustration photo: Trinh Nguyen).
Real estate market data also recorded certain recoveries from this industry. According to a market research unit, in the third quarter, people's interest in land, private houses, apartments, and villas all increased sharply compared to the same period last year, especially land increased by 49%. Participating in the survey, 72% of brokers commented that the fluctuations in the current real estate market have more positive signals.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn - said that the three amended laws related to real estate (amended Land Law, Real Estate Business Law, Housing Law) are being positively received by buyers, brokers, trading floors and investors. This year's real estate market is expected to increase transparency thanks to changes in the law. The supply of social housing is also likely to improve with new preferential and support policies.
However, the market is still waiting for legal bottlenecks to be removed more quickly, solving the market supply. Mr. Vo Hong Thang - Deputy General Director of DKRA Group - said that legal is the biggest bottleneck for the market at the moment, once it is removed, investors will be able to access capital immediately.
On August 1, the National Assembly voted to pass three laws related to real estate earlier than expected. However, according to Mr. Thang, it will take 6-8 months for the laws to come into effect and another 6 months for projects to fully access the new laws. Therefore, from 6-12 months after the three laws are passed, the market can increase its supply. The removal is related to the Government, but the speed of implementation is also related to ministries, branches and localities. Depending on the locality, the implementation time will be different.
However, more importantly, Mr. Thang said that in addition to waiting for circulars and guiding decrees, the market needs the cooperation of many parties. The government needs to speed up and complete legal guidance documents. Enterprises and investors must try to restructure and restructure themselves in the current difficult situation.
"But the core is still the law. If the law is resolved, the crisis will be resolved. The power lies in the hands of the State," the Deputy General Director of DKRA Group emphasized.
Mr. Tran Khanh Quang - real estate expert - also agreed that if the 3 laws were implemented earlier, the market would respond positively, and investor confidence would return. The government also implemented many measures to remove obstacles and create conditions for the market to develop.
However, when the law was passed earlier, the decrees, circulars, and guiding documents did not keep up, causing confusion in many localities. Right in Ho Chi Minh City, regarding land records, in nearly a month, there were more than 8,800 records pending, causing huge economic losses. He said that localities and ministries and branches should quickly unify the implementation of the law in a streamlined manner.
Mr. Quang also made some recommendations, such as considering calculating land use fees reasonably, avoiding people having to "buy real estate twice"; promoting the development of affordable housing for the community so that people with average to good incomes can access real estate in the context of housing prices only increasing, not decreasing.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/bat-dong-san/thay-gi-tu-chinh-sach-giai-cuu-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-cua-trung-quoc-20240930052439164.htm
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