USD exchange rate today (May 19): USD anchored at important milestone - Lang Son Newspaper and Radio and Television

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, stood at 100.98.

Forecast of USD trend this week

The DXY index started last week's session with a strong gain of more than 1%. But the index then lost momentum and fell back, trading steady above 100.5.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

The DXY index is currently at a key level, with support at 100.50 – 100, and resistance at 101.50 – 102. If the index can stay above 100.50, it could rise to 102 again this week. Conversely, a break below 100.50 could drag the index down to 100.

Overall, the 100-102 mark could be a short-term trading range. A breakout on either side of this range would determine the greenback's next move.

If the index rises above 102, the short-term trend will be bullish. It could take the DXY index up to 104. On the other hand, a break below 100 would keep the broader downtrend intact. It could even drag the DXY index down to the 98-96 zone.

As mentioned last week, 96 is a long-term support level that could be the stopping point of the current downtrend.

With trade tensions easing, markets have reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut this year, pricing in a 74% chance of a first cut of at least 25 basis points at the central bank’s September meeting, according to LSEG data. Several major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Barclays, have recently scaled back their forecasts for a US recession and their views on Fed easing.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.55% last week as expected. However, it failed to sustain the higher level and fell by the end of the week.

The current resistance level of 4.55% has held very well. Failure to bounce from the current level could drag the yield down to the 4.35 - 4.30% zone, a key support zone. A break below 4.3% could take it down to 4.2% and even lower.

4.55 - 4.6% is a strong resistance zone. The US 10-year Treasury yield must break above 4.6% to gain bullish momentum. Only then will a rise to 4.8% appear.

On the other hand, EUR/USD fell below the support level at 1.1150 last week, which was contrary to market expectations. Despite a nice bounce from the low of 1.1065, it does not seem to have enough momentum to push higher again.

If the EUR falls below 1.1070, it will be at risk of falling to 1.0950 and even lower. For now, EUR/USD needs to rise sharply above 1.13 to ease the bearish pressure and consolidate the upside momentum towards the 1.15-1.16 zone.

USD exchange rate today, May 19: USD anchored at an important milestone. Photo: Reuters

USD exchange rate in the country today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on May 19, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the USD at 24,960 VND.

* The reference exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office has slightly decreased, currently at: 23,762 VND - 26,158 VND.

USD exchange rate at commercial banks buy and sell as follows: