Ukraine builds defensive fortress, keeps troops in front of Russian battlefield

Ukraine dựng pháo đài phòng thủ, giữ binh lực trước trận địa Nga - 1 — A Ukrainian sniper practices shooting at a shooting range near the front lines in Donetsk (Photo: Reuters).

In early January, at a U.S. military base in Germany, Ukrainian military planners held week-long talks with their American and European counterparts, focusing on how to defend against Russian forces as the conflict prepared to enter its third year.

According to CBC News , Ukraine is likely to largely maintain a defensive posture in its conflict with Russia throughout 2024.

Last year, Ukraine's counteroffensive yielded very little progress on the battlefield. Defense experts say that as Ukraine grapples with shortages of ammunition and troops, it needs to rebuild and restructure its forces. However, this requires the United States, Ukraine's largest military aid provider, and other nations to take more action to support Kyiv.

"Ukraine has to take defensive action with limited resources. I think most people assume Ukraine can hold out until 2024. But by 2025, that will be a big question," said Tim Willasey-Wilsey, professor of war studies at King's College London.

In recent months, Ukraine has attempted to push back Russia on the southern and eastern fronts, building fortifications along a vast front line to hinder Russian troops, amid Moscow's increased arms buildup through boosted domestic production and reliance on external partners. The West accuses Iran and North Korea of continuing to supply weapons to Russia for use in its military campaign in Ukraine.

Five months after Ukraine launched its counteroffensive, the country's top general admitted to The Economist that the war had reached a stalemate. However, the Ukrainian general retracted this statement in an interview with a Ukrainian publication a month later.

Ukraine and Russia are both preparing for the next phase of their protracted war.

While the battle lines may change little in 2024, the international political landscape could shift dramatically if former President Donald Trump or another Republican is elected president of the United States in November.

A $60 billion aid package for Ukraine is stalled in the US Congress , as Republicans refuse to approve it unless Democrats agree to tighten border security and crack down on illegal border crossings.

Ukraine appeals for aid.

Ukraine dựng pháo đài phòng thủ, giữ binh lực trước trận địa Nga - 2 — Russia's multi-layered defense line in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters).

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the Lithuanian leader in Vilnius recently, he declared that 2024 would be a decisive year for Ukraine and its partners, while acknowledging that one of the biggest problems Kyiv faces is the lack of modern air defense systems.

Last January, Canada pledged to provide Ukraine with a $400 million surface-to-air missile system, but it has yet to be delivered. The system, known by its acronym NASAMS, is jointly manufactured by American and Norwegian companies, and it is unclear when it will be deployed to Ukraine.

In December, a senior Ukrainian army general told Reuters that ammunition shortages, particularly artillery shells, had forced the Ukrainian military to scale back its operations.

"They can't fire too many shells… That number has dropped from around 7,000 per day to around 1,000-2,000 across the entire front," Patrick Bury, a former British Army captain and NATO analyst, said in an interview with CBC .

Mr. Bury stated that Russia currently has an advantage over Ukraine in terms of the number of artillery shells that can be fired across the front lines.

"This is mainly due to the fact that production in Europe and the US, although increasing significantly, has not yet reached the necessary levels," expert Bury commented.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has criticized European Union members for not doing enough to provide Ukraine with sufficient weapons.

According to a report published by the Estonian Ministry of Defence late last year, the EU has supplied 300,000 of the one million artillery shells agreed upon and will have to significantly increase production to meet Ukraine's minimum needs for the next two years.

The report predicts that Ukraine could win a war against Russia by 2026 at the latest.

Konrad Muzkya, a defense analyst and director of the consulting firm Rochon Consulting, said Russia has been able to ramp up production of military vehicles and artillery by putting its economy into a wartime state, with some factories operating 24/7.

Expert Muzyka stated that there is no precise data on Russia's production levels, but independent Ukrainian analysts believe that Russia could produce, modernize, and repair 1,000 tanks per year.

"We believe that the current rate of production (in Russia) will remain sustainable for the next few years," he said.

Through mobilization and recruitment, Russia has been able to strengthen its military. However, Russian economists have warned of a worsening labor shortage due to the millions who left Russia in the early days of the conflict.

Meanwhile, millions of people have also left Ukraine, according to the UN refugee agency. An estimated 30 million people live in areas currently controlled by Ukraine.

The Ukrainian parliament is considering a bill to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25, while the military is requesting an additional 500,000 troops.

However, deploying troops to the battlefield is only the first step, as experts believe Ukraine's training program needs to be improved to better prepare soldiers and commanding officers on the front lines.

"Can you imagine sending a number of volunteers to the battlefield, but only giving them five weeks of training to attack Russian lines?" expert Bury said.

He said that Ukraine has achieved considerable success using missiles and drones to target Russian military infrastructure, including the Black Sea Fleet, and believes this will be a key part of Kyiv's strategy in the coming months.

Ukraine continues to pressure its partners to supply weapons for its military needs. "Ukraine is under pressure because it wants to show its Western partners that it can win on the battlefield," expert Bury noted.

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