Exports in 2024 are forecast to increase the most since 2021.

A newly released report by UOB forecasts that Vietnam's exports will increase by 18% this year, the highest rate since 2021.

A newly released report by UOB Bank forecasts that Vietnam's exports will increase by 18% this year, the highest rate since 2021.

According to the General Statistics Office, in 2023, export turnover reached US$355.5 billion, a decrease of 4.4% compared to 2022. Therefore, UOB's forecast means that this year's result could be approximately US$420 billion.

Xuất khẩu 2024 dự báo tăng cao nhất kể từ năm 2021

Exports in 2024 are projected to increase at their highest rate since 2021.

According to data from the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to November 15th, export turnover has nearly reached the same level as the whole of last year, at 352.38 billion USD, an increase of 14.8% compared to the same period in 2023.

Several product groups made significant contributions, including: computers, electronics and components, which increased by $12.79 billion (26.1%); and machinery, equipment and parts, which increased by $8.08 billion (21.7%). Alongside these, textiles, wood and wood products also experienced double-digit growth.

As of November 15th, the total value of imports nationwide reached US$329.1 billion, a 16.6% increase compared to the same period last year. According to UOB, this year's trade growth is partly due to the continued expansion of foreign direct investment.

In the first 10 months of the year, Vietnam registered $27.3 billion in FDI. Disbursed capital is on track to reach a record high for the third consecutive year. The latest data shows that Vietnam's growth trajectory remains on track.

However, the short-term situation shows signs of slowing down. Vietnam's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November, published by S&P Global, recorded 50.8 points, indicating manufacturing growth for the second consecutive month, but not as strong as in October, when the PMI reached 51.2.

According to a New York-based financial information and analytics firm, production and new orders have slowed. In particular, new orders from overseas have decreased after a slight increase in the previous month.

Andrew Harker, Director of Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that, to some extent, the slowdown in growth reflects weakening international demand, with exports falling at the largest rate since July 2023.

Nevertheless, the S&P Global survey indicates that Vietnamese manufacturers remain optimistic about increased production next year, driven by expectations related to new product launches and business expansion, coupled with increased new orders.

By the end of November, total import and export turnover was estimated at approximately 715 billion USD, an increase of 15.3%, with a trade surplus of over 23 billion USD; the estimated total for the whole year is 807.7 billion USD, the highest ever. The outstanding efforts of businesses, along with the active support and cooperation from the Government , ministries, and agencies, are important factors contributing to this year's success.

A newly released report by UOB forecasts that Vietnam's exports will increase by 18% this year, the highest rate since 2021.

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