Seafood exports could reach 11 billion USD by 2025

Despite facing many difficulties, our country's key seafood products still maintain good growth, creating a foundation for annual exports to reach 11 billion USD.

Persistent efforts in volatile market context

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam's seafood exports in the first 10 months of 2025 recorded an important step forward, reaching more than 9.5 billion USD, an increase of 15% over the same period.

This result demonstrates the industry’s persistent efforts in the context of a volatile market, especially policy shocks from the US market. Although the third quarter began to show signs of slowing down due to the impact of reciprocal taxes, key product groups still maintained good resilience and created a foundation for the entire year’s exports to reach the milestone of 11 billion USD.

Vietnam's seafood exports in the first 10 months of 2025 reached more than 9.5 billion USD, up 15% over the same period. Photo: Hong Tham .

In the export product group, shrimp continues to play the leading role when it reached over 3.9 billion USD in 10 months. In addition to whiteleg shrimp and tiger prawns maintaining stable growth, the focus this year is lobster - an item with a rare breakthrough growth rate of over 712 million USD, up 134%. This is an explosion stemming from the huge demand from China and Hong Kong for the live shrimp and high-end shrimp segment, especially the HORECA culinary group.

Pangasius is the second main product, reaching an export turnover of about 1.8 billion USD after 10 months. Notably, tilapia has become a new bright spot, with impressive growth of 220% to 62 million USD and is shaping up to be a potential strategic product of Vietnam, with increasing demand in the United States and many European countries.

Meanwhile, tuna remains under pressure. Exports for the first 10 months remained at around US$791 million, down nearly 4% year-on-year due to a shortage of skipjack tuna for canning and the conflict in the Middle East continuing to disrupt the supply chain. Some businesses have had to scale back production or switch to loin products to reduce costs.

On the contrary, the squid and octopus group has had a clear recovery, bringing the total turnover in 10 months to over 627 million USD; demand in Japan, Korea and the United States has improved strongly, especially for frozen products for processing. Fish cakes and surimi also attracted attention when in 10 months they reached 291 million USD - an increase of 24% over the same period, becoming one of the fastest growing product lines in the whole industry.

China is an “important fulcrum”

According to VASEP, in the first 10 months of 2025, China and Hong Kong continued to be an “important fulcrum” for Vietnam’s seafood industry. Export turnover to this market exceeded 2 billion USD, an increase of more than 32%, especially strong in lobster, sea fish and live crab products. The demand for fresh seafood at the end of the year is opening up significant growth potential for Vietnam’s seafood exports.

In contrast, the US market entered a period of many fluctuations. Although the total export value to the US in the first 10 months still increased compared to the same period last year, reaching about 1.66 billion USD, the downward trend began to be evident from the third quarter due to the 20% reciprocal tax applied from August. The shrimp and tra fish groups, which account for a large proportion, both decreased in September and October because many businesses proactively adjusted their shipments to avoid the risk of losses.

The demand for fresh seafood consumption at the end of the year is opening up significant growth potential for Vietnam's seafood exports. Photo: Kim So.

In addition, other challenges such as anti-dumping tariffs on shrimp and regulations of the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) are expected to directly affect exploited seafood from the beginning of 2026 - making the US market a "risk hotspot" for the industry.

Exports to Japan continued to recover steadily, with a turnover of nearly 1.45 billion USD in the first 10 months, increasing thanks to strong consumption of shrimp, squid, sea fish and pasteurized crab. The EU is also a good growth market, reaching 985 million USD in 10 months, benefiting from the bloc easing some technical barriers to Vietnam's farmed seafood...

Identifying opportunities and challenges in 2026

For the shrimp industry, the global frozen shrimp market is forecast to grow from approximately USD 18,742.6 million in 2025 to USD 32,847.3 million in 2035 – a CAGR of approximately 75.3% over the next 10 years. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is estimated at 5.8% from 2025 to 2035.

The global frozen shrimp market is entering a period of strong growth, driven by consumer preferences for convenience foods, high protein demand, expansion of farming and modern processing technology. With growth forecast to increase by more than one and a half times over the next decade, the frozen shrimp industry is a promising segment for producers, processors and distributors.

With the strong growth of the global frozen shrimp market, the Vietnamese shrimp industry is facing a great opportunity to expand its scale and increase its export value. The demand for convenient, protein-rich foods, along with the trend of deep processing and clear traceability, creates "room" for Vietnamese shrimp to participate more deeply in the high-value segment. If we take advantage of farming, processing, technology and green standards, the shrimp industry will not only increase its output but also make a breakthrough in value in the next decade.

Mr. Le Van Quang, Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Director of Minh Phu Seafood Corporation, said that the biggest difficulty facing the Vietnamese shrimp industry today is the unreasonable planning of farming areas, leading to complicated disease developments, resulting in high production costs - even 30% higher than in India and twice as high as in Ecuador, reducing competitiveness.

'If the disease problem is solved and farming areas are planned properly, Vietnamese shrimp can absolutely rise to become the world's leader,' Mr. Quang emphasized.

For pangasius, China is still a potential market for Vietnam, although there are still many challenges. The demand for frozen pangasius fillets in this market remains stable thanks to affordable prices, suitable for the popular consumer segment. In addition, the geographical advantage of proximity helps logistics costs to be significantly lower than in distant markets, thereby creating a clear competitive advantage for Vietnamese pangasius enterprises.

In the EU market, pangasius still has a lot of room. The shortage of whitefish supply is directly affecting the price and market share of products in this region. In this context, the need to find options with reasonable prices and stable supply is forecast to increase, opening up space for alternative products. Thanks to the advantage of cost, stability of raw materials and the ability to meet diverse processing requirements, Vietnamese pangasius is considered a suitable candidate to increase market share in the EU.

Meanwhile, Vietnamese tilapia is emerging as a strategic industry, capable of a strong “breakthrough” if properly invested in, from farming, processing to building an international brand. With natural advantages, global demand and aquaculture development policies, Vietnamese tilapia has great potential to become a key export product, complementing shrimp and tra fish.

Vietnamese tilapia is emerging as a strategic industry, with the potential to make a strong “breakthrough” if properly invested in. Photo: Hong Tham .

Similar to the tuna industry, the Government recently issued Decree No. 309/2025/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 26/2019/ND-CP and Decree 37/2024/ND-CP related to detailed regulations on measures to implement the Law on Fisheries.

Notably, the Decree adjusts a number of contents on exploitation management, including suspending the implementation of regulations on the minimum size allowed for exploitation of a number of aquatic species living in natural waters in Appendix V issued with Decree No. 37/2024/ND-CP until the regulations are amended to ensure compliance with the provisions of law, the Party's policies, and the direction of the Government and the Prime Minister.

This is considered an important step to remove obstacles for businesses, especially tuna products, thereby opening up new expectations for the recovery and growth of the seafood industry in the coming time.

Besides the opportunities that have opened up, in 2026, Vietnam's seafood industry will still face many major challenges, from the extension of reciprocal taxes in the US market, the risk of being impacted by MMPA, the possibility of the EU continuing to maintain the IUU yellow card, to increasingly fierce competitive pressure from India, Ecuador, Indonesia...

That context requires Vietnamese enterprises to proactively restructure the market, promote value-added products, invest in processing technology and improve sustainability standards, thereby creating a foundation for long-term growth.

Amidst the big waves of policy, market and global competition, Vietnamese seafood has remained resilient in its growth momentum with its internal strength, flexibility and ambition to reach further. 2026 may still have many "headwinds", but it is also a test for a more sustainable and courageous development journey than ever before.

Source: https://nongnghiepmoitruong.vn/xuat-khau-thuy-san-nam-2025-co-the-can-moc-11-ty-usd-d787346.html