What are the opportunities for seafood exports to the US after the new presidential election?

The US has always been Vietnam’s largest seafood export market. Donald Trump’s re-election as US President brings both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood.

The US - Vietnam's largest seafood export market

According to the Association of Processing and Seafood export Vietnam (VASEP), by the end of October 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports to the US had reached 1.5 billion USD, up 15% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in the whole year of 2024, seafood exports to the US will bring in 1.85 billion USD, up 19% over 2023.

The US has always been Vietnam's largest seafood export market (Photo: VASEP)

In recent years, the US has always been Vietnam's largest seafood export market. Seafood export turnover to the US in the past 5 years has fluctuated from 1.5 billion USD to 2.1 billion USD per year. Despite always facing strict protection policies such as anti-dumping and anti-subsidy taxes, the demand of the US market is still very large and the quality of Vietnamese seafood is increasingly improved, helping to maintain and expand its position in this market.

Donald Trump’s re-election as US President brings both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood. According to VASEP, the US’s specific trade policies under Trump may create both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood exports in the coming time.

Accordingly, in the context of the US-China trade confrontation, there may be major changes in the US supply chain and imports. Specifically, the US may reduce imports of seafood products from China and seek alternative sources, including Vietnam.

Shrimp and pangasius are Vietnam's main seafood products exported to the US, and the US's increase in tariffs on Chinese seafood could open up great opportunities for Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius to replace Chinese seafood products. This helps increase Vietnam's seafood exports to US market. In addition, China, with reduced seafood imports from the US, may switch to importing seafood products from Vietnam instead.

As the trade war intensifies, the global supply chain may be disrupted, creating an opportunity for Vietnam to become a reliable alternative source for countries that want to avoid high tariffs from the US, especially seafood products. Therefore, Vietnam can be chosen as an alternative supplier in the global supply chain.

However, to make the most of these opportunities, Vietnamese seafood enterprises need to maintain high product quality, increase deep processing and exploit free trade agreements (FTAs) to expand markets and improve competitiveness.

What are the challenges for Vietnam’s seafood exports in the coming time? According to VASEP, although Vietnam can take advantage of some opportunities from the US-China trade war, at the same time, Vietnamese seafood enterprises also have to face US trade defense measures. These measures may include anti-dumping duties, anti-subsidy duties and strict requirements on product quality.

Although the results of anti-dumping taxes on shrimp, pangasius and anti-subsidy taxes on Vietnamese shrimp exported to the US tend to be more favorable in 2024, businesses still need to be cautious and strategic when exporting to this market.

According to VASEP, the US government under Trump has previously strengthened protection measures related to food safety and quality standards. This could make it difficult for Vietnamese seafood exporters to comply with stricter food safety standards, leading to increased production and inspection costs.

In addition, the US's protectionist policies and tariff barriers could also increase competition between Vietnam and other seafood exporting countries such as India, Ecuador, or Indonesia, major competitors in the seafood industry.

Businesses need to improve internal capacity

To take advantage of opportunities and overcome challenges, VASEP recommends that Vietnamese seafood enterprises need to be proactive and flexible in adapting to market fluctuations.

Exported seafood products must fully comply with FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) regulations, including standards on hygiene, food safety and disease prevention. At the same time, businesses need to ensure standards on sustainable production and strict quality control from farming to processing to meet the increasingly high requirements of the US market.

“American customers and consumers are increasingly concerned about issues related to sustainability, environmental protection and social responsibility. Therefore, Vietnamese seafood businesses should apply sustainable farming methods, such as clean shrimp farming, and aquaculture according to international standards (GlobalGAP, ASC, MSC) to enhance their reputation and meet the increasing demands of the market,” VASEP recommends.

In addition, businesses need to provide transparent information about the production process, the origin of raw materials and quality standards. This will help build trust with consumers and partners in the US, while meeting the needs of distributors, supermarkets and large retail systems in the US.

At the same time, Vietnamese seafood enterprises need to improve their competitiveness, have effective production and business strategies with reasonable and transparent product prices. At the same time, enterprises need to have plans to quickly respond to changes in US tariffs and trade measures.

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