Can Republicans Break the 'Blue Wall'?

(CLO) Former Republican President Donald Trump had to tear down part of the Democratic Party's "Blue Wall" to regain the White House.

A series of new polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump in the "Blue Wall" - the three battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - that many forecasters say she needs to win to win the presidency.

A Marist Institute poll of battlegrounds Michigan and Pennsylvania released on November 1 showed the Democratic vice president leading his Republican opponent by 2 points in each state, 50% to 48%. A third poll of Wisconsin voters showed Ms. Harris leading by 3 percentage points, 51% to 48%.

Posters supporting Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Photo: AFP

The small advantage Ms. Harris holds is credited to independent voters, who appear to be shifting in her direction in the final days of the election.

Ms. Harris opened a 6-point lead over Mr. Trump among independents in Michigan, 52% to 46%, improving from a 2-point lead in September. She also improved from a 4-point lead with independents in Wisconsin in early September to a 6-point lead in late October.

The most significant change occurred in Pennsylvania, which saw a 19-point shift among independents, with Harris at 55% and Trump at 40%. In September, Trump led Harris 49% to 45% among independents.

“The good news for Harris is that she has an advantage among independents and white voters compared to Biden four years ago,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “The bad news is that the gender gap is not as large as it was here in 2020 or elsewhere today.”

Several polls released on November 1 showed the race was tight.

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll shows Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump tied in Pennsylvania with 49% of the vote each, according to the statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27-30, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Center for Political Studies, called the race "inconclusive."

“All the results are within the margin of error… it's basically a statistical tie,” Mr. Paleologos said, according to USA Today.

Additionally, the Detroit Free Press' final poll of Michigan voters showed Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by 3 percentage points, bolstered by support from women and Black voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

The states that make up the Democratic Party's "blue wall" have a total of 44 Electoral College votes, with Pennsylvania having 19, Michigan having 15 and Wisconsin having 10.

If Ms Harris can win Pennsylvania and another “blue wall” state, Mr Trump will need to win other swing states, including the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, to win the White House.

Ngoc Anh (according to Fox)

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/bau-cu-my-con-1-ngay-dang-cong-hoa-co-the-pha-vo-buc-tuong-xanh-post319897.html