World coffee prices fluctuate strongly, domestic prices are stable, what is the market forecast for the new crop?

Coffee prices are rising due to shortages. The world's two largest coffee suppliers, Brazil and Vietnam, have both suffered crop failures due to climate change. In addition, speculation on the London exchange has also caused world coffee prices to fluctuate strongly and change continuously.

Coffee price today 9/17/2024

World coffee prices increased sharply at the beginning of the week on both the New York and London exchanges, then suddenly turned down at the end of the session.

Domestic coffee prices today, September 17, have decreased, currently trading in the range of 122,800 - 123,200 VND/kg. According to experts from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), domestic coffee prices are stable because supply has been exhausted and there are few transactions. Vietnam harvests coffee in November and December, so in September and October every year, the coffee output supplied to the market is at its lowest level of the year.

Coffee prices on both exchanges have experienced strong fluctuations at the beginning of the week. At the beginning of trading, both exchanges increased sharply, then gradually decreased and closed at a slight decrease. Meanwhile, robusta coffee prices on the London exchange peaked at nearly 5,500 USD/ton, increased to 240 USD/ton and then turned to decrease sharply. The reason for the decrease was due to strong liquidation selling pressure at the end of the session. This was a predicted move when the short buying volume of both exchanges increased while the closing date of business positions was approaching.

Experts explain that the current world coffee situation, mainly financial transactions, is a playground for "speculators" based on the normal commodity trading market. Coffee supply is lower than demand, so speculators will place orders in the direction of expecting prices to increase, pushing coffee prices up, then taking profits. This is also the reference price for businesses when signing futures contracts.

Domestic coffee prices today, September 17, decreased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Rodeo West)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the first trading session of the week (September 16), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange turned down, the delivery period in November 2024 decreased by 21 USD, trading at 5,246 USD/ton. The delivery period in January 2025 decreased by 21 USD, trading at 4,977 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the December 2024 delivery period decreasing by 0.9 cents, trading at 258.55 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery period decreased by 0.5 cents, trading at 256.10 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

Domestic coffee prices today, September 17, decreased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,350	- 20
DAK LAK	123,200	- 600
LAM DONG	122,800	- 700
GIA LAI	123,200	- 600
DAK NONG	123,200	- 600

(Source: giacaphe.com)

In about 2-3 weeks, the people of the Central Highlands will enter the new coffee harvest season. According to forecasts of many experts and businesses, the output may be about 10% lower than previous years, due to the severe and prolonged drought at the beginning of this year. Due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon, this year's coffee output has decreased, but the price is likely to be good.

In recent times, due to the scarcity of domestic coffee supply, domestic coffee prices have fluctuated little according to world prices. In addition, according to customs data, Vietnam has also increased coffee imports from countries in the region. In the past 8 months, Vietnam imported nearly 98,000 tons of coffee with a turnover of nearly 371 million USD, an increase of 42% in volume and about 104% in turnover compared to the same period last year.

The Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) forecasts that coffee prices will continue to remain high in September due to reduced supply and increased demand. Coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year in Vietnam is expected to decrease sharply, to a 13-year low. Meanwhile, the world coffee consumption market increased sharply at the end of the year.

The coffee market in the 2024-2025 crop year is forecasted to have positive price signals, especially from major customers from Europe, America, the Middle East, and Japan. In addition, in recent years, the domestic consumption of Arabica coffee has been growing at double-digit rates, showing that the Arabica coffee market is expanding both domestically and for export. The demand in the world market, especially in the EU, the US, and Japan for high-quality Arabica coffee and specialty coffee is very high, always in a state of supply not meeting demand.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1792024-gia-ca-phe-the-gioi-dao-dong-manh-trong-nuoc-on-dinh-du-bao-thi-truong-vu-moi-286593.html