Oil prices resume their downward trend.

(Chinhphu.vn) - The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) reported that the sharp decline in the energy market contributed to a nearly 0.7% drop in the MXV-Index to 2,204 points.

Following the positive negotiations between the world's two largest economies , the US and China, optimistic market sentiment has supported crude oil prices, pushing them towards $60 per barrel. However, the oil market is now facing the more obvious reality of oversupply, which could push prices down.

Oil prices plummet amid supply concerns.

According to MXV, all five commodities in the energy group experienced sharp declines after the close of yesterday's trading session. Specifically, the prices of crude oil both weakened by more than 2%, falling to $61.6 USD/barrel for WTI and $64.5 USD/barrel for Brent. Anxiety gripped the market as news of a potential return of oil supply from Iran intensified pressure from oversupply in the global market.

The main driver behind yesterday's sharp drop in oil prices came from new developments in negotiations between the US and Iran regarding Tehran's controversial nuclear program. US President Donald Trump announced that the two countries had resolved many differences and were very close to reaching a new agreement.

The US and Iran's move closer to a new nuclear agreement not only opens the possibility of lifting many of Washington's sanctions against Tehran, but also means that Iran's energy exports – the third-largest oil producer in OPEC – could soon be restored to international markets.

According to an analysis by SEB Bank (Sweden), if sanctions are eased as part of a nuclear deal, the global market could receive an additional 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Iran, significantly increasing supply and potentially leading to a surplus in a context where demand shows no signs of strong recovery.

This scenario has reinforced the prospect of a global crude oil supply surplus, especially after the two unusual production increase decisions by the OPEC+ group recently. Notably, in its May report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global supply growth to 1.6 million barrels per day this year, an increase of 380,000 barrels per day compared to its previous forecast. According to the IEA, this increase far exceeds the forecast for global oil demand growth, which is only 740,000 barrels per day in 2025. The large gap between supply and demand puts the oil market at risk of prolonged oversupply, creating strong downward pressure on prices.

Furthermore, the decline in oil prices was further fueled by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C. yesterday. Chairman Powell reaffirmed the goal of controlling inflation at 2% and indicated his intention to maintain high interest rates at 4.5%, despite recent inflation indicators such as the CPI and PPI showing a more stable trend. Maintaining high interest rates not only pushes the US dollar higher but also slows down the US economic recovery, thereby negatively impacting the outlook for global crude oil demand.

Soybean prices have fallen sharply.

In the agricultural commodities market, soybean prices fell sharply by nearly 2.5% to $386 per ton, ending a five-session winning streak. The main reason was the plunge in soybean oil prices due to rumors that the 2026 biofuel blending obligation (RVO) would be lower than expected, triggering a wave of profit-taking.

A USDA report showed that US soybean exports for the new crop year reached only 282,000 tons, a 25% decrease, adding further pressure on soybean prices. Argentina raised its production forecast to 48.5 million tons thanks to high yields. Record soybean crushing volumes in the US, coupled with a 10-month high in soybean oil inventories, added further downward pressure on prices. The forecast of hot, dry weather in the US also impacted the market.

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/gia-dau-quay-lai-da-suy-yeu-102250516094449884.htm