Many "money-holding" investors are waiting for technical adjustments to disburse new funds - Illustration photo
VN-Index has just closed the trading week with a large amplitude and an increase of nearly 40 points. Large-cap stocks such as VIC (Vingroup), VHM (Vinhomes), MSN ( Masan ), TCB (Techcombank), VPB (VPBank)… continuously increased points.
"Hot" increase in some stock groups
As the index nears its historic peak, VPBank Securities analysts said the level of FOMO (fear of missing out) is more evident. Accordingly, in the session on July 18, the transaction value reached its highest level since the session on April 11, 2025.
At the same time, ignoring a series of obstacles such as hot technical indicators, derivatives expiration sessions, and even when foreign investors were net sellers, investors continued to push money into the market, creating the main driving force to help VN-Index reach nearly 1,500 points.
"For new buying positions, open at the support zone retest, only when the demand has returned should you disburse," VPBank experts recommended.
Speaking further to Tuoi Tre Online , Mr. Bui Van Huy - Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors and Director of Investment Research at FIDT Investment Consulting and Asset Management Joint Stock Company - said that the market is clearly differentiated.
"The strong increase recently mainly comes from stocks related to Vingroup and some private enterprises with clear growth momentum. Some other groups of stocks have not increased much yet," said Mr. Huy.
According to Mr. Huy, there are stocks that are "more expensive" in terms of valuation, but there are also stocks that are still cheap. For small individual investors, there are still opportunities in stocks with attractive valuations, but "screening" requires a lot of experience.
"It's not true that cheap means you can buy if the business doesn't have fundamentals or potential," Mr. Huy noted, avoiding the "FOMO trap."
In more specific analysis, Mr. Huy pointed out that the groups of stocks that have increased sharply recently include real estate, securities, and banking. In the short term, the VN-Index still has an upward trend, interspersed with technical corrections.
Regarding cash flow trends, Mr. Huy said that the "speculative" factor is quite large, associated with the story of Vietnam being upgraded to a market (expected in September) and the individual stories of each group of businesses.
"When money is pumped into the economy along with inflation, investors are forced to find alternative investment channels. When there is a lot of money, asset prices increase. Cheap and abundant money is greatly supporting the stock market," said Mr. Huy.
Can VN-Index reach 1,700 points?
Ms. Nguyen Thi Phuong Lam - Director of Analysis at Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC) - also commented that abundant liquidity is supporting the revaluation process.
VDSC analysis group forecasts that VN-Index may head towards the 1,513 - 1,756 point range in the next 6 to 8 months, equivalent to an increase of 6 - 23% compared to the closing price on July 9, 2025.
Ms. Lam believes that the direct impact of tariffs on Vietnam's economic growth in 2025 will not be too large. The EPS (earnings per share) growth of the VN-Index in 2025 is expected to reach VND114-120, an increase of 15-22% over the same period last year.
In addition, VDSC experts also adjusted the target P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) range for VN-Index in the next 6-8 months to 13.3x-14.7x (compared to 13.5x-14.5x previously), to reflect positive supporting factors such as loose fiscal and monetary policies helping to maintain low interest rates and expectations of market upgrade in September.
FTSE Russell's March 2025 review shows that the possibility of Vietnam being upgraded to emerging market status is very close. FTSE emphasizes the need to improve the trading mechanism and open accounts more transparently and conveniently for foreign investors.
To meet this requirement, Vietnam has issued additional circulars such as 18, 03 (after Circular 68-2024) and officially operated KRX from May 2025.
Ms. Lam said that when the upgrade becomes a reality, the Vietnamese market will attract large capital flows from global reference funds of 1 billion USD, contributing to improving liquidity and valuation.
However, VDSC noted that investors need to monitor risks such as geopolitical fluctuations, exchange rate pressure if the Fed delays lowering interest rates, and uncertainty in the Trump administration's policies.
"However, these risks are mostly just hazards and can impact market sentiment in the short term, and are unlikely to affect the fundamentals of businesses if they are not structural," Ms. Lam said.
In addition, according to Ms. Lam, although Vietnam's tariffs are currently quite favorable compared to many countries, there are still potential risks as the US has not yet made an official decision for some industries and the possibility of an unfavorable interpretation of the concept of "transshipment" could affect long-term production and export plans.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/giai-ma-suc-nong-chung-khoan-nha-dau-tu-tiep-tuc-day-tien-bat-chap-nhieu-chi-bao-20250719104935981.htm
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