Expect bad bank debt to decrease by year-end

At the end of the first 9 months of the year, bad debt was clearly differentiated among banks, in which the group of small-scale banks was still under pressure, but expected to gradually decrease towards the end of the year.

Bad debt control results

Nam A Bank's total assets as of the end of September 2025 reached more than VND 377,000 billion, an increase of more than VND 132,000 billion compared to the beginning of the year. The bad debt ratio was at 2.53% (before CIC) and 2.73% (after CIC), down from 2.85% of the period of June 30, 2025. At the same time, the bad debt coverage ratio (LLR) increased sharply from 39% of the period of June 30, 2025 to nearly 46% of the period of September 30, 2025. The liquidity reserve ratio reached nearly 20%, twice as high as the minimum level prescribed by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).

Meanwhile, after the first 9 months of this year, KienlongBank's total assets reached VND97,716 billion, mobilized capital reached VND87,491 billion, outstanding credit reached VND70,922 billion - increasing by more than VND5,500 billion, VND7,300 billion and VND9,400 billion respectively compared to the beginning of the year. KienlongBank controlled the bad debt ratio below 2%, the bad debt coverage ratio for 3 consecutive quarters exceeded 80%.

By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the consolidated non-performing loan (NPL) ratio according to Circular 31/2024/TT-NHNN was strictly controlled by VPBank , falling below the threshold of 3%; individual NPL continued to improve, at 2.23%. After 9 months, the collection from consolidated risk-resolved debt reached nearly VND 2,900 billion; in the third quarter of 2025 alone, debt collection increased by 29.7% compared to the previous quarter. At the end of September, the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the consolidated bank remained above 13%, continuing to be in the leading group.

As for LPBank , as of September 30, total assets increased by 6.1% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching VND539,149 billion. The bank's bad debt balance increased by 32.4%, to VND6,961 billion, leading to an increase in the bad debt ratio from 1.58% to 1.79% (total debt of groups 3, 4, 5/total outstanding loans to customers), but still lower than the prescribed ratio.

PGBank has just announced its business results for the first 9 months of 2025, with pre-tax profit of nearly VND497 billion, up 44% over the same period in 2024. In addition to the record profit, the Bank also recorded a bad debt ratio according to Circular 31 of 2.84%. The balance of VAMC bonds as of the end of the third quarter of 2025 was VND1,139.5 billion, forcing PGBank to set aside nearly VND531.2 billion for these bad debts.

According to the consolidated financial report for the third quarter of 2025 just announced, VietABank achieved pre-tax profit of VND 336 billion, up 46% over the same period last year; accumulated in the first 9 months of the year reached VND 1,050 billion, up 32% over the same period in 2024. Regarding asset quality, VietABank's bad debt balance at the end of the third quarter was VND 1,556 billion, up 42.6%, leading to an increase in the bad debt ratio from 1.37% to 1.79% (total debt of groups 3, 4, 5/total outstanding loans to customers), but still lower than the rate prescribed by the State Bank. In particular, bad debt increased mainly from group 4 debt, up 88.5%.

Expectations to decrease towards the end of the year

According to the survey results of the Department of Forecasting, Statistics and Financial Monetary Stabilization (SBV), the overall risk level (MBRR) of customer groups is assessed and forecasted by credit institutions to continue to increase slightly in the third quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the rate of credit institutions assessing the overall customer risk at the present time as "high" and "quite high" has decreased significantly compared to the previous survey period.

By the end of 2025, credit institutions forecast that MBRR will not have improved significantly compared to the end of 2024, but is expected to improve in 2026. The bad debt ratio is expected to continue to decrease slightly in the third quarter of 2025 as expected and decrease more sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025, contrary to the "increase" forecast of the same period last year.

In this survey, credit institutions have adjusted down their forecasts for the ratio of bad debt/credit balance by the end of 2025 compared to the results recorded in the previous survey. The overall business situation and pre-tax profit of the banking system in the third quarter of 2025 are assessed to have improved compared to the previous quarter, but significantly lower than expected.

Credit institutions forecast that the improvement trend will continue in the last quarter of the year. 71.7-78.3% of credit institutions assess and expect internal factors to improve in the third quarter and the whole year of 2025. 68.9-72.6% of credit institutions assess and expect that overall objective factors will have a positive impact, helping to "improve" the business situation in the third quarter and the whole year of 2025.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/ky-vong-no-xau-ngan-hang-giam-ve-cuoi-nam-d420329.html