In 2025, the US is still a promising market for the wood industry.

In 2024, Vietnam's wood and wood products exports will reach 16.3 billion USD, exceeding the target of 15.2 billion USD. The US continues to be the largest export market, with 8.17 billion USD, up 24.6% (equivalent to 1.61 billion USD) and accounting for 56% of the total export value of this group of products of the country. This is also a major driving force, forecast to maintain growth momentum for the whole year 2025.

Producing wooden furniture for export at Minh Duong Wood Joint Stock Company, Binh Duong province. (Photo: VU HOANG)

According to MBS Research, in 2024, factors of prolonged recession and inflation have caused purchasing power in major markets such as the US, the European Union (EU) and China to remain low. Consumers in these regions tend to cut spending on non-essential products, including wooden products. In addition, the Vietnamese wood industry also faces challenges as major export markets increasingly require strict control of wood origin to ensure legality, not affecting degradation, deforestation, green production, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the risk of trade fraud and product origin is increasing, combined with complicated trade competition, causing Vietnamese wood products to face many anti-dumping lawsuits.

However, in 2024, Vietnam's wood and wood product exports still achieved impressive results, higher than the set target thanks to efforts to overcome difficulties, diversify markets and reduce dependence on traditional markets. In addition, businesses in the wood industry have participated in trade fairs and exhibitions and switched from processing for export to designing new models, improving product quality.

In particular, the recent increase in the number of wood industry enterprises with FSC-CoC (Certificate of Origin) certification has helped Vietnam's wood and wood products to be less affected by strict standards in major consumer markets such as the US and EU. Regarding the wood industry value chain, according to Vice President of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST) Ngo Sy Hoai, currently, input materials from domestic sources have met 77.4% and the rest are imported from countries around the world, including China, the US and countries in the ASEAN region. Exports of wood and wood products to the largest market, the US, have witnessed a strong recovery due to improved consumption demand since mid-2024. US importers highly appreciate and identify Vietnam as a major supplier, especially for wooden furniture. In particular, the decision to reduce interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (FED) at its September 2024 meeting marked an important turning point, supporting the real estate market by contributing to cooling down home loan interest rates and boosting people's purchasing power, increasing the demand for home renovation and the demand for consumption of wooden furniture products in the US.

Experts say the recovery of the US housing market, Vietnam’s largest export market for wood and wood products, will continue to be the main driving force for maintaining the growth momentum of Vietnam’s wood and wood product exports in 2025. Lower freight rates combined with increased demand are expected to help improve the number of orders for wood and wood product exporters.

In 2025, the FED is expected to make two more interest rate cuts, thereby cooling down US home loan interest rates, contributing to the recovery of the housing market, helping the consumption of wood and wood products continue to grow strongly. Not only that, exporters expect that the new presidential term's tax policies in the medium and long term will help Vietnamese wood products gain more market share from the shifting consumer trends in the US.

Therefore, to meet the increasing demand, especially in the second half of 2025, Vietnamese enterprises will have to continue to improve the quality of wood products for the corresponding market, constantly improve designs, build brands, link chains, focus on reducing costs, including logistics costs to create sustainable competitiveness. On the other hand, from the perspective of state management, ministries, branches and the government need to continue to amend and supplement appropriate policies to create a favorable legal corridor, ensuring production and business. Thereby, promoting competitive advantages in exporting wood and wood products for enterprises...

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