2025 and the prospects of Oil and Gas stocks

The fierce race between supply and demand

In the 2024-2025 oil and gas industry outlook report, Petroleum Securities (PSI) said that total global oil demand is forecast to reach 102.8 million barrels/day in 2024, down 0.4 million barrels/day compared to the forecast at the beginning of the year. The main reason for this decline comes from the rapid slowdown in oil consumption growth in China. In 2025, global oil demand is forecast to increase slightly by 0.95 million barrels/day, total oil consumption reaching 103.8 million barrels/day. With the forecast of a slow recovery of the global economy and the strong development of renewable energy, oil consumption will be affected.

Source: IEA, PSI synthesis

Regarding crude oil supply, in 2024, global oil supply is forecast to reach 101.8 million barrels/day. Of which, oil production from countries outside OPEC+ may increase by 1.5 million barrels/day. However, in 2025, oil supply is forecast to increase by 2.1 million barrels/day because the OPEC+ group may ease production cuts. This could cause the market to be in a state of oversupply in 2025.

Given the above situation, PSI believes that oil prices will be around 70-80 USD/barrel in 2025, assuming tensions in the Middle East do not continue to escalate.

Oil and Gas Stocks Still Have Much Prospects

According to PSI, the picture is not entirely bleak. Large upstream projects are promising to bring a breath of fresh air to the industry. Accordingly, businesses involved in oil and gas exploration, exploitation and transportation activities will benefit and have good prospects in 2024-2025.

Specifically, with PV Drilling (HSX: PVD), PVD's rigs have signed contracts for 2025 with regional partners at high rig rental prices. PVD also has the potential to provide Drilling and Drilling services for domestic Oil and Gas projects with high value.

For Vietnam Oil and Gas Technical Services Corporation - PTSC (HSX: PVS) , in addition to the prospects from large oil and gas mechanical contracts for domestic upstream projects, PVS also has a potential business segment from developing the renewable energy market, offshore wind power as a contractor and investor.

In the midstream sector, PetroVietnam Transportation Corporation (HSX: PVT) has a positive outlook for 2025, including crude oil tankers, LPG tankers and bulk carriers. The company mainly participates in the time charter market in the international market, so fluctuations in the spot market will not affect the company's profits.

Meanwhile, the outlook for PetroVietnam Gas Corporation (HSX: GAS) is that dry gas and LPG prices will recover in 2024 thanks to oil prices remaining in the range of 70-80 USD/barrel, while dry gas demand continues to grow at 2.6% in 2024.

Downstream, there have been signs that crack spreads of products are recovering significantly since bottoming out in June 2024. PSI expects this trend to continue until the end of the year, when global demand for these products will improve, thereby facilitating the operations of Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Joint Stock Company (UPCoM: BSR) . In addition, on May 27, the People's Court of Quang Ngai province opened bankruptcy proceedings against Central Petroleum Biofuel Joint Stock Company ( BSR -BF). Therefore, this company is no longer a subsidiary of BSR. This will make the process of transferring BSR's listing floor more favorable.

2025 promises to be a turbulent year for the oil and gas industry, where opportunities and challenges intertwine, creating a mind-boggling game for investors.

PV

Source: https://www.pvn.vn/chuyen-muc/tap-doan/tin/f3d4c58d-c4ca-4c65-8185-1e0c275deaf0