Big banks are getting stronger because of real estate, small banks are getting weaker because of capital mobilization.

Competition for deposits is forecast to intensify in the second half of the year, putting pressure on small banks. Meanwhile, large banks and the Big 4 group will continue to lead the recovery, partly benefiting from the real estate market.

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Big banks benefit from real estate recovery

A recent banking industry update report by VIS Rating analysts shows that in the first half of 2025, credit quality at major banks improved as the industry-wide bad debt ratio decreased to 2.3%.

Big players such asACB , VietinBank, VPBank, and MB recorded a decrease in overdue debt, mainly thanks to the booming real estate market and the resolution of many legal problems. As a result, the group’s return on assets (ROAA) increased and its risk tolerance capacity was also strengthened.

By the end of Q2/2025, up to 16/27 banks improved NIM thanks to increased lending to high-yield real estate and construction (for exampleSHB , HDBank, Techcombank). Big 4 banks and some private banks such as VPBank, SHB benefited from low credit costs and strong debt recovery.

On the contrary, small banks are still “exhausted” when the cost of mobilization increases due to fierce competition, while having to set aside large provisions. Some banks such as ABBank, NCB, KienLongBank have improved thanks to good debt collection, but many other banks such as Ban Viet, Saigon Cong Thuong, Viet A… continue to see declining profits.

Capital and liquidity: bottlenecks in the mid- and small-cap group

By the end of the second quarter of 2025, the industry's bad debt coverage ratio remained at 80%, with major banks such as MBB and VPB improving significantly. On the contrary, many mid-sized banks (TPB, LPB,VIB ) suffered capital erosion due to high cash dividend payments.

Liquidity is also a challenge as credit is growing faster than deposits, with the industry's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) rising to 109%. Large banks are proactively issuing long-term bonds and borrowing internationally to balance the balance, while small banks are vulnerable, especially when under pressure to withdraw deposits.

VIS Rating forecasts that in the second half of 2025, industry-wide profits will continue to recover steadily.

In particular, the group of large and state-owned banks continues to lead the recovery, benefiting from the recovery of real estate and support policies. In particular, small banks continue to face liquidity pressure, high capital costs, and uneven profits.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/ngan-hang-lon-khoe-len-vi-bat-dong-san-ngan-hang-nho-duoi-suc-vi-huy-dong-von-d364165.html