Stock market new week: Waiting for signals of domestic cash flow to catch the bottom early?

The domestic stock market continued to decline sharply for a week, extending the decline to the fourth consecutive week. The VN-Index broke the support level of 1,600 points at the end of the week and more importantly, the stock price level fell sharply. Liquidity did not increase but continued to decrease, and foreign net selling tended to dry up.

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Those are the points to observe to follow the bottom-fishing cash flow and choose goods for the new investment cycle.

VN-Index breaks the 1,600 point mark

The world stock market has also just experienced a week with many negative developments. Many stock markets have fallen sharply. In the US stock market, the Nasdaq index fell 3%, marking the biggest weekly decline since early April; the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes each fell more than 1%.

The sharp decline also occurred in many markets in the Asian region, including major markets such as: Japan (-4.1%), South Korea (-3.7%), Taiwan (-2.1%)...

In line with the global markets, the Vietnamese stock market continued to have a week of sharp decline. Closing the weekend session, the VN-Index stopped at 1,599.1 points, down -40.55 points (-2.5%) compared to the previous week. Thus, the VN-Index has decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, the longest decline since mid-August 2024. From the lowest point last week, the market has lost more than 200 points (-11.2%) since the peak.

Midcap stocks had the sharpest decrease (-4.6%), VN30 also fell -3.2% and Smallcap fell -2.3%.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the two main indices reversed. The HNX-Index ended the week at 260.11 points, down 5.74 points, or -2.16% compared to the previous week. The UPCoM-Index reversed the trend, increasing by 1.77%.

The market recorded a week of negative breadth as industry groups decreased more. However, the market still recorded some groups of stocks going against the market trend such as: Food (+7.1%), Insurance (+2.9%), Oil and Gas (+0.9%)... While the decrease was concentrated in some groups of stocks such as: Retail (-6.9%), Public Investment (-6.4%), Seafood (-6.4%)...

Market liquidity continued to decrease last week, but the decrease was not large. This is quite positive in the context of a deep market decline. Accordingly, the average trading value during the week reached VND 28,644 billion/session, down -5.8% compared to the previous week, in which the matched liquidity also decreased -4.8% to VND 26,565 billion.

According to statistics from MBS, liquidity in the first week of November decreased by -22% compared to the average level in October, but was still +81% higher than the same period. Accumulated from the beginning of the year, the liquidity of the whole market reached VND 29,500 billion, up +39.8% compared to the average level in 2024, and up +37% over the same period.

Foreign investors are still net sellers, but the selling value has decreased significantly. Accordingly, foreign investors have net sold -2,540 billion VND and this is the 16th consecutive week of net selling, bringing the cumulative net selling from the beginning of the year to -131,330 billion VND. Last week, foreign investors net bought:FPT (+561 billion VND), MSN (+286 billion VND), PVD (+270 billion VND), while net selling STB (-757 billion VND), HDB (-426 billion VND), SSI (-312 billion VND)...

Last week, the securities companies' self-trading sector net bought stocks such as: FPT (+339 billion VND), TCB (+140 billion VND), MWG (+107 billion VND)... while net selling other stocks such as: HDB (-88 billion VND), MSN (-53 billion VND), CTG (-34 billion VND)...

Hope bottom fishing cash flow can gradually return

The stock market has been losing points quite quickly. In just 4 weeks of decline, the VN-Index has lost nearly 200 points, or more than 11% from the 1,800 point mark. Although the decline was quite rapid, this is not too surprising. The market has been growing very strongly and for a long time, so a correction to accumulate is necessary.

The market is not really sure yet whether it will end the decline in the new week or not. The index may adjust further but if you look at liquidity, everything is quite stable. Liquidity does not increase massively even though the score has dropped deeply. That combined with the fact that many codes have dropped deeply and entered the good buying zone. Those are the bases to predict that the domestic cash flow to catch the bottom may send a signal this week. Cash flow will be the first signal to determine whether the market trend has gradually recovered or not.

The market may need some more cash flow testing sessions, but looking further ahead, the market has good factors for medium-term expectations for the end of this year and early next year. First, the market will continue to receive macroeconomic support.

Fourth quarter GDP growth is the first factor – likely to be at a high level to offset the growth target of over 8% for the whole year. Another factor is to promote investment and disbursement of public investment capital. Most recently, the Politburo also concluded on continuing to focus on implementing tasks and solutions to ensure the highest level of implementation of the 2025 growth target, creating a solid momentum for sustainable growth at double digits in the coming period; at the same time, starting a number of important national projects in the fields of transport, energy, infrastructure and projects using large public investment capital such as the Eastern North-South Expressway, Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plant, international railway... from the beginning of 2026.

In addition, this National Assembly session is also entering its final stage. Therefore, sentiment may be more open when the country's policies have been clearly announced.

The market will also usually increase well in the last months and the beginning of the year. The amount of liquidity withdrawn is observed and ready to re-enter when the stock price is attractive and liquidity will be better from domestic cash flow. On the other hand, if looking at foreign money, this group seems to be gradually reducing the selling pressure and this does not exclude this group from net buying again in the near future.

According to MBS Research, the 1,600-point support zone of the VN-Index has lasted from August 25 until now, the market has recovered here many times when there is a positive bottom-fishing cash flow. The market losing the 1,600-point threshold last weekend was not surprising when the first round of bottom-fishing stocks in the account was not very effective, besides, the market losing this support threshold in a short time at the end of last week also needs more confirmation signals.

Technically, if the market decisively loses this support level with high liquidity, the next support levels will have significant depth if we count the recent increase since the April bottom. In the short term, the market's support in the MA100 area corresponds to the 1,590-1,600 point zone.

LONG AN

Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-cho-tin-hieu-dong-tien-noi-bat-day-som-post921943.html