Commodity markets move in opposite directions

The energy sector recovered slightly while the coffee market was under strong downward pressure due to signals of import tax adjustments. The MXV-Index ended the week at 2,349 points, up nearly 1% compared to the previous week.

Energy market recovered in all 5 commodities. Source: MXV

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), crude oil prices are the focus of the energy market as they continuously fluctuate in opposite directions under the influence of macroeconomic factors and global supply and demand.

Market sentiment improved at the start of the week after news that the US Congress was close to an agreement to end the government shutdown. Expectations of a recovery in economic activity, especially in the aviation sector, helped WTI crude oil prices rise to $60.13/barrel and Brent to $63.94/barrel in the session on November 10.

However, the gains were erased by oversupply pressure in midweek sessions. OPEC's report forecasts that the market could be in a slight surplus in 2026 as output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries increases.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also forecast that the market in 2026 could have a surplus of more than 4 million barrels/day, equivalent to nearly 4% of global demand.

US commercial oil inventories continued to put pressure as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of 1.3 million barrels.

At the end of the week, Brent increased 1.19% to 64.39 USD/barrel, while WTI increased 0.57% to 60.09 USD/barrel.

Selling pressure increased sharply in the coffee market. Source: MXV

On the other hand, the coffee market witnessed strong selling pressure throughout the week. The US signaled that it could exempt non-domestic food products, including coffee, from tariffs, causing Robusta coffee prices to fall more than 9% to $4,223/ton, while Arabica coffee fell nearly 2% to $8,814/ton.

At the same time, Rabobank's forecast shows that the 2026-2027 crop year could see a surplus of 7-10 million bags, along with favorable weather prospects in Brazil, further reinforcing the downward price trend.

However, the physical market is in a state of tension as Arabica inventories hit their lowest level since March 2024, at just over 403,000 bags. In the Central Highlands, green coffee prices fell sharply to 108,000 - 109,000 VND/kg due to the impact of the world market, causing transactions to be quiet as farmers limited sales.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-bien-dong-trai-chieu-723556.html