Financial market: The pillar to ensure double-digit growth target

On November 4, in Ho Chi Minh City, within the framework of the Vietnam Investment Forum 2026 (VIF 2026), a discussion session took place with the theme: "Financial market - Pillar and driving force of Vietnam's growth" focusing on clarifying the role of the banking system in realizing the target of double-digit economic growth from 2026 and maintaining stability in the long term towards 2045.

*Discussion session with the topic "Financial market - Pillar and driving force of Vietnam's growth"*

Financial market - the pillar to ensure double-digit growth target

Moderating the discussion, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan - Member of the Advisory Group for the Establishment of the International Finance Center in Ho Chi Minh City emphasized: To achieve a growth scenario of 10% and maintain it continuously for 20 years, Vietnam needs a huge amount of capital, in which the financial market and especially the banking system continue to play a central role in leading capital. "Vietnam's economy relies mainly on the bank (bank-based system). The debt/GDP ratio has exceeded 130%, showing a very high level of dependence on bank credit capital and this trend is difficult to change in the medium term," he said.

Dr. Nguyen Tu Anh - Director of Policy Research at VinUni University emphasized the role of credit in real growth. He analyzed that to achieve a real GDP growth rate of 10%, plus inflation of about 3%, the nominal growth rate will be about 13%/year. "To serve this growth rate, credit often has to exceed nominal GDP growth by at least 2-3 percentage points. Thus, credit needs to increase by about 15%/year in the coming period. This alone shows the key role of the banking system."

*Dr. Nguyen Tu Anh - Director of Policy Research, VinUni University*

According to him, Vietnam will continue to operate in a bank-based financial structure for at least another 15 years, because the capital market is still young, the level of risk acceptance and risk management capacity of investors is limited. Meanwhile, banks have outstanding advantages in collecting and processing information, risk valuation, management capacity and capital scale. "For the capital market to develop, it must have a strong force of professional investors and a more complete legal system. That is a long-term process," Dr. Tu Anh emphasized.

He also highlighted the pioneering role of banks in digital transformation, considering it a major driving force for national competitiveness. The banking system is at the forefront of implementing electronic identification (eKYC), digital payments, API platforms and open banking, forming a shared data infrastructure, supporting businesses, especially SMEs, to access credit more conveniently on the basis of data transparency and artificial intelligence applications. “In the future, banks will go further with smart contracts, promoting efficiency, reducing risks and expanding the ability to provide financial services,” he said.

Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan commented: “Banks are not only a channel for capital mobilization and allocation, but also a force for innovation, leading digital transformation in the economy. The relationship between banks and businesses is increasingly open, creating a data and technology ecosystem to serve production and business development, especially for the SME sector.”

Corporate credit, infrastructure - energy and banking system differentiation

Discussing the role and prospects of the banking system in the new period, Mr. Quan Trong Thanh - Director of Analysis Department of Maybank Securities Vietnam - emphasized that banking institutions will still be the main capital channel of the economy. According to him, the current credit/GDP ratio of about 134% is still in the safe zone and has room for expansion. In the period 2013-2022, credit increased mainly thanks to the retail and personal lending sectors; after 2022, the trend of shifting to corporate lending is clear and is considered a more sustainable direction.

*Mr. Quan Trong Thanh - Director of Analysis Department, Maybank Securities Vietnam.*

Notably, the current corporate credit structure reflects the pioneering role in investment in production and infrastructure. Mr. Thanh cited data showing that in the 2020-2024 period, total social investment capital was about 682 billion USD, of which production investment accounted for the largest proportion, the FDI sector accounted for the majority, the remaining 44% was provided by domestic banks. The three major state-owned commercial banks are responsible for about 60% of lending capital to the domestic manufacturing enterprise sector. “The space for private banks is therefore quite limited, forcing them to strongly develop the retail and SME sectors - a trend that will continue but with a more sustainable orientation, based on data and technology,” he said.

Another highlight is the prospect of infrastructure and energy credit. According to calculations, to achieve the GDP growth target of 10%/year, Vietnam needs about 1,400 billion USD in investment capital in the next 5 years, or an average of 280 billion USD/year. FDI capital is only about 24-30 billion USD per year, the rest must come from the budget and the domestic private sector, in which banks play a decisive role. "The energy infrastructure pie is opening up very large. The trend of 'public-private national development' will push the private sector and private banks to the leading role," Mr. Thanh commented.

However, state-owned commercial banks are still the mainstay, especially in regulating liquidity, stabilizing the market and attracting international capital. Improving financial health, increasing equity and improving the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) for this sector is an urgent requirement to serve the goal of upgrading the national credit rating and the Vietnamese financial market. As evidence, VietinBank has recently had good profit growth, retained profits to increase capital, and improved credit supply capacity. "We expect Vietcombank and BIDV to continue to maintain their strategy of strengthening financial health, contributing to leading the market ," said Mr. Thanh.

In terms of digital transformation, banks are moving very quickly. Supporting business households and SMEs to digitalize their books, standardize data, and create an AI-based credit scoring platform is helping to expand credit coverage and improve risk management quality. “This is a shift from quantitative credit growth to qualitative growth,” Mr. Thanh affirmed.

Towards a financial group model

From international experience, Dr. Nguyen Minh Cuong - Economic expert (ADB) sees the financial group model as an inevitable trend when banks accumulate enough capital and capacity. However, this model in Vietnam needs to be placed in the context of the real economy that is still developing unevenly. "Vietnam's economic structure is still based on the foundation of small and micro enterprises, 5 million individual business households, 35 - 45 million workers in the informal sector. This reflects that the financial system is difficult to quickly shift to a strong capital market model," he analyzed.

According to Dr. Cuong, credit quality is more important than quantity. Bank capital mainly flows into a few key areas such as real estate, banking, and securities. “A high credit/GDP ratio is not a concern if the capital flow is used effectively and the project cycle is suitable for the capital structure. Many countries develop infrastructure quickly with short-term loans because the implementation time is only 2-3 years. The problem lies in speed and implementation capacity,” he said.

Regarding the trend of financial conglomerates, he said that the development of banks is moving faster than the real economy, creating a gap between corporate governance capacity and the supervision capacity of management agencies. " If the financial conglomerate model develops rapidly but the supervision mechanism cannot keep up, systemic risks and cross-ownership may increase." Two directions need to be handled in parallel: strengthening the legal framework to supervise financial conglomerates. At the same time, determining the role of this model in promoting economic restructuring, expanding the customer base and improving the quality of financial services.

The focus is not on limiting development but on creating a sustainable and healthy development environment. Banks are at the forefront of digital transformation, green finance, green credit, fund management, securities, and insurance, but need to ensure a system of risk control and transparent governance. “The biggest goal is to ensure that the financial system supports the process of restructuring the economy, instead of going too far ahead and creating risks,” he said.

Also at the discussion session, according to experts, an appropriate financial model must be based on the development level of the real economy. Vietnam is still heavily reliant on FDI and financial products revolving around real estate, banking, and securities, so the need to form US-UK style financial super corporations is not really clear. However, the trend of developing financial corporations in Vietnam is gradually emerging, especially in listed banks with an ecosystem of banking - insurance - securities - fund management and soon digital assets.
According to experts, this model comes from market demand: As individuals and businesses develop, they need more advanced financial services, from investment, asset management to private banking. However, the biggest challenge today is high-quality human resources and legal corridors. Vietnam lacks a legal framework for investment banking - a link that helps connect the money market and the capital market, securitize long-term loans and accompany capital with businesses. Therefore, developing laws and investment banking models is a necessary step to form financial corporations in the future.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/thi-truong-tai-chinh-tru-cot-bao-dam-muc-tieu-tang-truong-hai-con-so-428931.html