Vietnam's FDI prospects in the context of global shifts

The wave of trade policy adjustments from the US to the European Union (EU) and Japan is reshaping global investment flows. In this context, Vietnam has emerged as a potential destination as international corporations seek a more stable and sustainable production environment.

Mr. Rizwan Khan, CEO of Acclime Vietnam.

Global investment restructuring opens the way for Vietnam

Global capital flows are shifting once again. As major economies prioritize domestic production, international investors are reassessing where to place their trust. They are looking not just for the lowest cost, but also for market stability, institutional credibility and long-term value. Vietnam is increasingly at the center of that choice. Vietnam’s proven manufacturing base is the foundation, but the next phase of growth will be based on value rather than output, that is, how far Vietnam can move from a “workshop” to an “innovative and trusted partner”.

The US “countervailing duty” policy, and the possibility that developed economies such as Europe and Japan will adopt similar measures, are not just tax changes. This is a strategic shift, as developed countries tighten high-tech supply chains and rebuild domestic production capacity. For Vietnam – an export-oriented economy, this is both a test and an opportunity to reshape FDI flows in the coming period.

According to the UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) Global Investment Report 2025, FDI into Europe fell by 58%, while Southeast Asia increased by 10%, reflecting the trend of rebalancing global supply chains. In Vietnam, registered FDI capital in the first 9 months of 2025 reached 28.54 billion USD, up 15.2% over the same period; realized capital reached 18.8 billion USD, the highest level in 5 years. However, newly registered capital decreased by 8.6%, showing that investors are more cautious, focusing on efficiency, resilience and sustainability instead of massive expansion. Meanwhile, capital for expanding existing projects increased by 48% and capital contribution and share purchase increased by 35%, reflecting investors' long-term but more selective confidence.

These changes are being reinforced by new global policies. Global minimum tariffs and a series of new trade agreements are forcing multinational corporations to reassess their production chains and cost structures. As traditional tax incentives fade, Vietnam’s competitive advantage will depend more on institutional quality, transparency in management and non-tariff support mechanisms, such as access to industrial land, high-quality infrastructure, streamlined licensing processes and a skilled workforce. These will be key factors helping Vietnam maintain its position in the race to attract investment to Asia.

More stringent global trade standards are not only binding, but also open up opportunities for economies that adapt quickly and flexibly. As the US, EU and China simultaneously raise their demands for quality, transparency and sustainability, Vietnam can turn regulatory compliance into a competitive advantage by upgrading production standards and increasing domestic value.

For example, Mexico’s decision to impose import tariffs on more than 1,400 products has unintentionally given Vietnam, a CPTPP member country, an advantage in terms of tax incentives and flexible rules of origin. As a result, many corporations are shifting production to Vietnam to diversify their supply chains and reduce geopolitical risks.

The global changes are most evident in industrial parks and export processing zones, where Vietnam is shifting its focus from “expanding scale” to “improving quality”. After more than a decade of leading growth through manufacturing, Vietnam’s industrial parks are entering a phase of transformation towards a green, smart and high-tech model, in line with the National Green Growth Strategy.

Recent legal reforms, notably Law No. 57/2024/QH15 and Decree 182/2024/ND-CP, have simplified licensing procedures, added incentives for high-tech projects, and supported up to 50% of R&D or infrastructure investment costs. This is in addition to tax incentives and reduced land use fees for facilities that achieve “green” certification.

Ho Chi Minh City is leading this trend. With 66 existing zones covering over 27,000 hectares and plans to expand to 105 zones by 2050, the city is piloting the conversion of five large zones including Tan Thuan, Hiep Phuoc, Tan Binh, Cat Lai and Binh Chieu into eco-industrial zones integrating logistics, R&D and support services. From now until 2030, Ho Chi Minh City aims to attract 21 billion USD in new FDI capital, focusing on green industry, digital technology and smart manufacturing.

In the first three quarters of 2025, registered FDI capital in Vietnam reached 28.54 billion USD, an increase of 15.2% over the same period in 2024.

Strategic directions to maintain competitiveness

The year 2025 opens a new era of development, with the orientation that by 2030 Vietnam will become an industrialized country with an upper middle income and by 2045 a developed country with a high income. The Government has identified the "Quad Pillars" as the foundation for reform, including Resolution 57-NQ/TW on digital transformation and science and technology; Resolution 59-NQ/TW on international integration; Resolution 66-NQ/TW on institutional reform; Resolution 68-NQ/TW on private economic development.

Vietnam’s next phase of growth will be driven by value, not output. That is, how far can Vietnam go from being a “factory” to an “innovative and trusted partner”.

Resolution 68-NQ/TW is considered a turning point in ensuring three core rights for private enterprises: market access, resources and property ownership, laying the foundation for an equal, stable and rule-of-law investment environment between the domestic sector and foreign investors.

The reform program is implemented through three pillars: institutional and administrative efficiency, infrastructure modernization, science and technology development and human resources.

Firstly, in terms of institutions, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed ministries and branches to cut at least 30% of business conditions, shorten 30% of procedure processing time, and expand the electronic one-stop system in investment, tax, and customs. Fiscal reform was promoted with a domestic minimum tax mechanism in line with OECD standards and investment incentives focused on research and development, clean energy, and digital transformation. This is a shift from the “ask-give” model to “serve-monitor”, creating a foundation for long-term investor confidence.

Second, in terms of infrastructure, Vietnam is accelerating a series of key national projects such as the North-South Expressway, coastal roads, Cai Mep-Thi Vai Port, Long Thanh Airport, railway lines and urban metro, following a decentralized model and separating site clearance from construction. This approach both shortens the progress and opens up new industrial-urban development corridors.

Third, regarding science, technology and human resources, the Government considers this a key pillar of the new growth model. Vietnam trains 100,000 engineers in the fields of semiconductors and AI, promotes university-enterprise cooperation and develops an innovation ecosystem. According to WIPO, Vietnam's Global Innovation Index 2025 ranked 44th out of 139 countries and territories, showing clear progress in technological capacity. At the same time, reforming the apparatus and preventing corruption helps streamline 32% of the administrative system, saving tens of thousands of billions of VND in regular expenditure, strengthening the investment environment to be more transparent and accountable.

Priority areas in the new growth cycle

With global capital flows moving towards areas that combine innovation, green growth and supply chain resilience, Vietnam’s next phase of growth will depend on getting it right in these areas.

Semiconductors and high-tech manufacturing are emerging as strategic focuses. With expansion investments from Intel, Samsung, Amkor, and plans from NVIDIA and many others, Vietnam is gradually becoming an important link in the global chip supply chain.

Renewable energy and green technology are new growth drivers. Vietnam is asserting its position as Asia’s green growth hub, thanks to its strong commitment to ESG, guaranteed PPA mechanism, Power Master Plan VIII and National Green Growth Strategy. Along with that, the eco-smart industrial park model is attracting investors towards sustainable development.

Healthcare and pharmaceuticals are a promising sector. Increased demand for healthcare, coupled with more flexible licensing policies, are attracting long-term investments in biotechnology, drug manufacturing, and medical devices. In the wake of the pandemic, many multinational corporations have begun to localize production to ensure supply chain security.

Logistics and smart infrastructure continue to be key. As exports and e-commerce grow rapidly, investments in ports, airports, highways and digitalized logistics systems are helping to reduce logistics costs and improve export competitiveness.

Finally, the digital economy and financial innovation are emerging as new pillars of growth. With plans to build international financial centers in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, and a dynamic fintech ecosystem supported by AI, cloud computing and a regulatory sandbox, Vietnam is laying the foundation for a modern digital economy.

But beyond the numbers, what matters most is how quickly Vietnam adapts. In a world reshaping trade and taxation, opportunities only come to countries that “do better, not just more”. That means real reform, investing in people and focusing on long-term value – where Vietnam is not just a destination for capital, but one where it stays and thrives.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/trien-vong-fdi-cua-viet-nam-trong-boi-canh-dich-chuyen-toan-cau-d424310.html