Exchange rate anchored above 26,500 VND/USD, interbank interest rates cool down

The central exchange rate has decreased for the second consecutive session. Although it has increased slightly, the exchange rate at banks is still quite far from the regulated ceiling.

On August 26, the central exchange rate announced by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continued to decrease by 18 VND/USD to 25,273 VND/USD, marking the second consecutive decrease. With a 5% amplitude, the ceiling exchange rate is approximately 26,530 VND/USD.

After a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, the selling rate at banks reversed to increase slightly but was still lower than the end of last week. At Vietcombank , the exchange rate increased slightly by 30 VND/USD compared to yesterday, trading at 26,150 VND/USD (buy) - 26,510 VND/USD (sell). Compared to the end of 2024, the selling rate at this bank is currently about 950 VND higher, equivalent to an increase of 3.753%.

The exchange rate has been increasing since the beginning of the year under the combined pressure of fluctuations in the world's USD and the loosening policy to support economic growth. However, the market is starting to expect a new monetary easing cycle in the US, which could create conditions for the exchange rate to gradually cool down towards the end of the year.

Recently, on August 25, US time, President Donald Trump issued a surprise decision to remove Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook for alleged mortgage fraud. According to a statement posted on the social network Truth Social, Mr. Trump cited Article II of the US Constitution and the Fed Act of 1913 as the basis for the immediate removal. President Trump also cited a petition from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), accusing Ms. Cook of falsely declaring her place of residence to benefit from mortgage loans.

The move also raises concerns about the Fed's independence in conducting monetary policy. According to many analysts , the dismissal of a senior member in the middle of the term could increase political pressure on the Fed, especially when this member has a moderate view on interest rate policy . According to the FedWatch tracking tool, investors are raising the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting to 83% in the context of the US economy continuously sending weak signals, from durable goods orders to consumer confidence and industrial production.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the greenback, rose in the first session of the week but reversed and fell in the early morning of August 26, Vietnam time, currently trading around 98.3 points. Overall, the DXY index has fluctuated around 98 points for nearly half a month, much lower than at the end of 2024.

The weakening of the USD against other major currencies is expected to support the USD/VND exchange rate in the coming time. In the latest report, experts from Yuanta Securities Vietnam expect the USD/VND exchange rate to continue to be supported by the decline of the USD following negative economic data in the US and expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025.

USD exchange rate fluctuations against other currencies. Source: Bloomberg, Yuanta Vietnam.

Meanwhile, in the currency market, interbank interest rates continued to show signs of stability. According to the latest update from the MSB Economic Research Center, on August 25, the average interbank interest rate in VND decreased slightly by 0.02-0.04 percentage points for short terms such as overnight and 1 month, down to 4.92% and 5.68%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 1-week term increased by 0.32 percentage points to 5.48%.

On the other hand, USD interbank interest rates remained flat for short terms and slightly decreased for 2-week and 1-month terms, currently trading around 4.3-4.43%. On August 25, the State Bank of Vietnam net injected nearly VND15,500 billion into the market through open market operations.

Last week, the State Bank of Vietnam withdrew a net VND20,400 billion from the system, but interbank interest rates still decreased significantly, especially at short terms.

According to Yuanta Vietnam, the VND-USD overnight interest rate gap has decreased to 15 basis points. Forecasting the interest rate trend in the coming time, experts from Yuanta Vietnam still maintain the view that deposit interest rates will continue to increase at the end of the year, although the new regulations of the State Bank of Vietnam on the required reserve ratio for credit institutions (CIs) from October 1, 2025 are assessed to be able to create momentum to support the economy and reduce pressure on deposit interest rates.

Regarding lending interest rates, experts from this securities company expect interest rates to continue to remain low to support economic growth.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/ty-gia-neo-tren-26500-vndusd-lai-suat-lien-ngan-hang-ha-nhiet-d371214.html