UNWTO: Global tourism to reach 80% of pre-pandemic levels by 2023

International tourism is on track to return to pre-pandemic levels, with double the number of people travelling in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.

Strong recovery momentum

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) World Tourism Barometer, the second of the year, shows that the industry's rapid recovery has continued into 2023. Accordingly, in the first quarter of 2023, international arrivals reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels. An estimated 235 million international tourist arrivals in the first three months of the year, more than double the same period in 2022.

In the first quarter of 2023, the Middle East was a bright spot in world tourism as it was the only region to see a 15% increase in arrivals compared to 2019 levels and the first region to recover pre-pandemic arrivals for the entire quarter.

Thanks to strong post-pandemic demand, first-quarter arrivals in Europe reached 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Africa reached 88% and the Americas 85%. Meanwhile, the Asia- Pacific region accelerated its recovery to 54% of pre-pandemic levels. However, the pace of recovery in the region is expected to accelerate sharply with China reopening its tourism market.

The UNWTO data also breaks down recovery by subregion and destination, with the southern Mediterranean region in Europe and North Africa also recovering to pre-pandemic levels by Q1 2023, while Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central America and the Caribbean are also close to pre-pandemic levels.

UNWTO: Global tourism to reach 80% of pre-pandemic levels by 2023 photo 2

Revised data shows that more than 960 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022, equivalent to two-thirds (66%) of pre-pandemic arrivals, and the growth figures from 2022 to date demonstrate the resilience and resilience of global tourism.

According to the UNWTO report, international tourism receipts have rebounded and reached the US$1 trillion mark in 2022, up 50% in real terms compared to 2021, thanks to the significant recovery of international tourism. International visitor spending reached 64% of pre-pandemic levels (in real terms, down 36% compared to 2019).

By region, Europe is forecast to see the best performance in 2022, with revenues of nearly $550 billion (€520 billion), or 87% of pre-pandemic levels. Africa has recovered 75%, the Middle East 70% and the Americas 68% of pre-pandemic levels. Asian destinations are expected to see around 28% of 2019 levels due to prolonged border closures.

Risks to recovery

“The first months of this year have once again shown the consistent resilience of the tourism sector. In many places, arrivals are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels. However, we must remain vigilant to various challenges, from geopolitical insecurity, to staff shortages and the potential impact of the cost of living crisis on the tourism sector. We must ensure that tourism returns responsibly as a solution to the climate emergency and as a driver of inclusive development,” said Zurab Pololikashvili, UNWTO Secretary-General.

The results for Q1 2023 are in line with UNWTO’s scenarios for the year, which forecast international arrivals to recover between 80% and 95% of pre-pandemic levels. The UNWTO Expert Panel expressed confidence in a strong peak season (May to August) in the northern hemisphere, reflected in the latest UNWTO Confidence Index, which suggests that performance in this period will be even better than in 2022.

However, the recovery of tourism also faces a number of challenges. According to the UNWTO Panel of Experts, the economic situation remains the main factor affecting the effective recovery of international tourism in 2023, as high inflation and rising oil prices lead to higher transport and accommodation costs. As a result, tourists are expected to increasingly seek cheaper and closer destinations. Uncertainty stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other heightened geopolitical tensions also continue to be negative risks to the recovery of the tourism industry in the year.

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